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Home Price Growth Views Accelerate, Mortgage Rate Fears Rise, NY Fed Says
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Home Price Growth Views Accelerate, Mortgage Rate Fears Rise, NY Fed Says
May 6, 2024 11:45 AM

02:26 PM EDT, 05/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Expectations regarding home price growth over the next year rebounded to the second highest level on record in February, while concerns about rising mortgage rates intensified, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday.

Average one-year-ahead home price growth expectations climbed to 5.1% in February from 2.6% in the same month the year earlier, the Fed branch said in its Survey of Consumer Expectations housing survey. That's slightly above the pre-pandemic mean of 4.2% but below the 2022 series high of 7%.

"The results show that the pace at which households expect home prices to rise in the next year has reaccelerated after falling last year, with average one-year ahead expectations now reaching their second highest reading in the survey's history," the NY Fed wrote.

Rent price growth expectations accelerated by 1.5 percentage points to 9.7%, the second highest reading in the series since 2022 and reversing last year's decline.

Five years out, expectations for annualized home price growth eased 0.1 percentage point to 2.7% while rent views edged up 0.1 point to 5.1%.

Households expect national mortgage rates to rise to 8.7% in one year and 9.7% in three years, which are both series highs, according to the survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been ticking back up since February, and surpassed 7% for the first time in about four months in mid-April, Freddie Mac data showed.

Attitudes toward housing as a financial investment "remained strongly positive" but weakened slightly year over year, according to the regional Fed. Expectations of residential mobility fell to series lows at both the one- and three-year horizons, the NY Fed said.

"Renters' perceptions about the ease of obtaining a mortgage deteriorated substantially," the Fed said. The proportion of survey respondents that believe obtaining a mortgage "is somewhat or very difficult" climbed 8.4 percentage points year over year to 74.2% while renters' probability of ever owning a home decreased by 4.3 points to about 40.1%, also a series low.

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