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Hot Jan US CPI surprise hurts case for Fed ease soon
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Hot Jan US CPI surprise hurts case for Fed ease soon
Feb 12, 2025 6:13 AM

(Reuters) - The U.S. consumer price index increased more than expected in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's message that it was in no rush to resume cutting interest rates amid growing uncertainty over the economy.

The CPI jumped 0.5% last month after gaining 0.4% in December, the Labor said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through January, it increased 3.0% after advancing 2.9% in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.3% and rising 2.9% year-on-year.

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures turned 0.9% lower, pointing to a weak open on Wall Street

BONDS: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.631%, while the two-year yield jumped to 4.37%FOREX: The dollar index extended to 0.43% higher, and the euro fell 0.3%

COMMENTS:

PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK

"Today's data confirms that inflation is still a problem, and obviously it upholds the Fed's stand on being cautious in lowering interest rates."

"Coupled with the prospects of the tariffs, it adds to inflation worries."

"It's negative all the way around, and it certainly means that the yields are likely to move higher. Metals are under pressure because of the stronger dollar and the rising yields and stocks are basically falling out of bed."

"If it keeps up like this another month or two of these kinds of numbers, that probably means that the Fed is likely to stay on hold for the remainder of the year."

"(Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell made it clear that they're going to stick to their dual mandate, and that they're not going to be bullied by any politician."

"Trump has his hands tied. Will he pressure the Fed? Yes. Will the will the Fed blink? No."

WHITNEY WATSON, GLOBAL CO-HEAD AND CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF FIXED INCOME AND LIQUIDITY SOLUTIONS, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT (by email)

"Today's stronger than expected CPI release is likely to further cement the FOMC's cautious approach to easing. A resilient labor market also provides scope for patience.  We think the Fed is likely to remain in 'wait and see mode' for the time being and anticipate the Fed staying on hold at next month's meeting."

(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)

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