12:29 PM EST, 12/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The International Energy Agency on Thursday lowered its global oil supply growth estimates, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its liquids production outlook for this year.

The IEA now expects oil supply to rise by 3 million barrels per day to 106.2 million barrels this year and by 2.4 million barrels a day to 108.6 million barrels in 2026. Last month, the agency pegged supply growth at 3.1 million barrels for 2025 and 2.5 million barrels next year.

The downward revisions come as the agency said that the projected oil surplus in the fourth quarter has narrowed "as the relentless surge in global oil supply came to an abrupt halt."

The IEA said global oil supply last month fell by 610,000 barrels per day from October and by 1.5 million barrels from September's all-time high. OPEC and its allies drove the decline, reflecting unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan and a sharp contraction in output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela, according to the IEA report.

"After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in (the first quarter of 2026) will provide fresh challenges," the IEA said. "The stark contrast between surging crude supplies and unexpectedly tight product markets has pushed refinery margins back to levels last seen in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

In October, the Trump administration announced sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Venezuela recently escalated.

Separately, OPEC projected liquid production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, or DoC, to rise by 960,000 barrels a day this year, up from its previous estimate that called for an 920,000-barrel gain. Liquid production includes crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids.

For 2026, OPEC continues to expect non-DoC liquids output to increase by 630,000 barrels a day, according to a report released Thursday. The DoC is the name for OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and non-OPEC allies.

The IEA upgraded its oil demand growth estimate to 830,000 barrels per day from 790,000 barrels for this year, citing "an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook." For 2026, oil consumption is expected to grow 860,000 barrels per day, up from a 770,000-barrel rise previously projected.

OPEC continues to expect oil consumption to rise by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.38 million barrels in 2026.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 2.2% at $57.19 a barrel in Thursday trading, while Brent fell 2.1% to $60.90.