India is likely to witness normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. Rainfall will be 96 percent to 104 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm of the 1971-2020 period, it noted.

Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88cm of the 1961-2010 period. "All-India rainfall normal based on 1971-2020 (period) for the southwest monsoon season is 868.6 mm. It will replace the normal of 880.6mm based on 1961-2010," it said.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is most likely over many areas in the northern part of peninsular India, central India, along the foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of northeast India, some parts of northwest India and southern parts of the southern peninsula. In 2021, the country received "normal" rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season from June to September.

It was the third consecutive year that the country recorded rainfall in the normal or above-normal category.

Northwest #monsoon likely to be normal days, says @IMDWeather pic.twitter.com/iTtgGCujuH

— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) April 14, 2022

India had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season towards the end of May.

It said La Nia conditions over the equatorial Pacific region are likely to continue during the monsoon season.

Also, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevailing over the Indian Ocean are predicted to continue till the beginning of the southwest monsoon season. Thereafter, an enhanced probability of negative IOD condition is predicted.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular cycle of change in wind and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics.

The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Nino and the cooling phase as La Nina.

El Nino is generally known to suppress monsoon rainfall in India while La Nina increases it.

Indian Ocean Dipole, also known as Indian Nino, is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperature in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

IOD has three phases—neutral, negative and positive.

The positive IOD phase is beneficial for the monsoon and negative IOD obstructs the progression of the monsoon over India.

Earlier on Tuesday, Skymet Weather Services had forecast an average monsoon rain this year. Monsoon rains are expected to be 98 percent of the long-term average, and there is a 65 percent chance that India will get average rainfall, Skymet said, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth.

India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres (35 inches) for the four-month season beginning June.

The country's nearly half agricultural land depends on the southwest monsoon between June and September months to kick off the farming season.

—With inputs from agencies

(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)

First Published:Apr 14, 2022 1:20 PM IST