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Increasing Short-Term Inflation Expectations Weigh on US Equity Indexes Ahead of Consumer, Producer Prices
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Increasing Short-Term Inflation Expectations Weigh on US Equity Indexes Ahead of Consumer, Producer Prices
May 13, 2024 10:58 AM

01:32 PM EDT, 05/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes traded mixed after midday on Monday as expectations for inflation one year ahead increased, adding to concern near-term price pressures are growing in the economy.

The S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% at 5,218.1, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 39,430.2. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to 16,361.3. Technology, utilities, and real estate rose while communication services led the decliners intraday.

In economic news, consumer expectations for one-year US inflation growth increased to 3.3% in April after remaining at a 3% pace for four consecutive months, according to a New York Federal Reserve Bank survey Monday. The median expectations slowed to a 2.8% gain from a 2.9% increase for the upcoming three years but rose to a 2.8% jump from a 2.6% advance for the five years ahead.

Following three hotter-than-expected reports in January, February, and March, the April consumer price index data is due Wednesday, and the producer price index Tuesday.

Any indication of the CPI accelerating inflation for a fourth consecutive month will make it "increasingly difficult" for the Fed to continue with a message of "patience for returning price stability - eventually," according to a note from Stifel. "Not impossible altogether but with each additional data point failing to show the [Federal Open Market] Committee's desired disinflationary pathway, the more the market will begin to question the Fed's terminal rate decision at 5.5%."

If the CPI declines, it could reignite market expectations for a cut, but it wouldn't be enough to sway the Fed any time soon, Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said on Friday. "A warm/hot reading would probably offer further motivation for FOMC officials to take an axe to the cuts shown in the March dot plot."

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.9 basis points to 4.48%, and the two-year rate declined 1.7 basis points to 4.85%.

In company news, Incyte ( INCY ) shares jumped 8% intraday, the top performer on the S&P 500, after the company said its directors authorized a $2 billion share buyback program.

Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA ) is seeking potential buyers for the 7 billion British pounds ($8.8 billion) Boots drugstore chain in the UK, a report from Bloomberg said Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Shares jumped 5% intraday, among the top performers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.6% to $78.75 a barrel.

Gold slumped 1.4% to $2,342.41 an ounce, and silver slipped 0.2% to $28.46.

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