India is likely to receive near-normal monsoon rains in 2019, the country’s official weather forecaster said on Monday, easing concerns over farm output and economic growth in Asia’s third-biggest economy where half the farmland lacks irrigation.

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The government-run India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s first long-range forecast for the south-west monsoon on Monday said that El-Nino conditions will weaken in coming months.

The onset of the south-west monsoon over India around the end of May — which delivers about 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall between June and September — is critical for the farm sector that accounts for about 14 percent of India’s $2 trillion economy and employs more than half of the country’s 1.3 billion people.

The June-September monsoon season is likely to see 96 percent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, IMD said in a statement. The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet predicted about two weeks ago, that the monsoon could start sluggishly this year due to the El Nino weather phenomenon.

Lower rainfall could increase the price of food, which is weighted at nearly half of the consumer inflation index, and could potentially push the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates.

Monday’s IMD’s forecast will be followed by a second long-range forecast in June, which would include predictions for each of the meteorological sub-divisions.

(With inputs from Reuters)

First Published:Apr 15, 2019 3:20 PM IST