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Inflation data suggests it's time to brace for another Fed rate hike: Dean Kim
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Inflation data suggests it's time to brace for another Fed rate hike: Dean Kim
Oct 13, 2023 9:35 AM

Dean Kim, Head of Global Research Product at William O'Neil + Co, believes the recent data on US consumer prices and jobs indicates it's time to brace for another interest rate hike.

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"It would be a very welcoming, positive surprise if the Fed were to come in and say they are going to pause for now. But, looking at the CPI print numbers, we should brace for another rate hike."

However, recent developments have shown a divergence of opinion within the Federal Reserve. The minutes from the September 11th meeting indicated a consensus among officials that they intend to uphold restrictive policies until they are confident that inflation is making its way toward the coveted 2% target range.

Despite this consensus, there exists a division among policymakers regarding the necessity of additional interest rate hikes to achieve this goal.

This difference in opinion has been evident in recent statements from various Fed representatives. Some have left the door open for further rate increases, while others believe that the current rate adjustments are sufficient.

When analyzing the individual members' expectations through the dot plot, it becomes apparent that approximately two-thirds of the committee has indicated that one more rate hike may be required before the year's end.

Since March 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised its key interest rate a total of 11 times, reaching the current targeted range of 5.25% to 5.5%, marking the highest level in 22 years.

On October 12, the financial markets experienced an increase in Treasury yields, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury witnessing an 11-basis point uptick to reach 4.707%. This uptick came as investors assessed recent economic data indicating persistent and elevated inflation, sparking speculations about the Federal Reserve's future actions.

Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley, discussed unforeseen challenges faced by bonds and currencies in India and across Asia in an interview with CNBC-TV18 on October 11. The primary concern is the significant increase in US yields, which has surged by approximately 130 basis points since May. While there has been a slight reduction in US yields, recent geopolitical changes in the Middle East have raised fresh concerns about oil prices, impacting Asian bonds.

(with inputs from CNBC)

Stay updated with real-time market developments on CNBC-TV18.com's blog.

(Edited by : Shweta Mungre)

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