Inflation returns to the center of attention this week, with a fresh inflow of data likely to shape expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin (BTC).

Thursday’s U.S. core PCE reading for February and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. Earlier this year, rate cuts looked almost certain. That has shifted. On Polymarket, odds of no rate cuts in 2026 climbed from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has been “pricing in a (U.S.) recession already” and has acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” falling below signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.

Recent data complicates that view. The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside in March, suggesting the U.S. economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in past cycles.

Following the release, market-based recession odds for this year dropped from around 37% to 28%.

As bitcoin has priced in a storm, Dragosch noted that the risk-reward ratio for bitcoin “is significantly skewed to the upside.” Still, an unexpected escalation in the war in the Middle East could bring about the priced-in storm.

What to Watch

(All times ET) Crypto ( CRCW )April 6, 12 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) to host a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.April 8: Stellar’s Yardstick protocol stable release to become available.April 9: Aerodrome’s Flight School to conclude and merge with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.April 9: Binance to migrate all DAI functionality to USDS.MacroApril 6, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March est. 55 (Prev. 56.1)April 7, 07:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly (est. 10K)April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for February est 04% (Prev. 0%)April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee to participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.April 8, 4:00 a.m.: Euro Area PPI YoY for February est. -1.9% (Prev. -2.1%); MoM est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.7%)April 8, 1:00 p.m.: FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting release.April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Core PCE Price Index MoM for February est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%);April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Personal Income MoM for February est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%); Personal Spending MoM est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (final) est. 0.7% (Prev. 4.4%)April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending April 4 est. 200K (Prev. 202K)April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China CPI YoY for March est. 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%) ;MoM (Prev. 1%)April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China PPi YoY for March est. 0.4% (Prev. -0.9%)April 10, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Unemployment Rate for March (Prev. 6.7%)April 10, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI MoM for March est. 0.9% (Prev. 0.3%); Core CPI MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)April 10, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI YoY for March est. 3.4% (Prev. 2.4%); Core CPI YoY est. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary April) est. 52.5 (Prev. 53.3)Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

Governance votes & callsApril 7: Kamino and xStocks to host an X Spaces session on tokenization.Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds, and modify interest-rate models across its V2 markets to support their continued deprecation. Voting ends April 6.Decentraland DAO is voting to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has support from voters. Voting ends April 6.Balancer DAO is voting across two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, routing all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends April 7.CoW DAO is voting 85 to fix its solver rewards budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends April 7.ShapeShift DAO is voting to cut DFC compensation, saving ~$24k/year in FOX. It clarifies roles and mandates annual renewals. Voting ends April 8.Arbitrum DAO is voting across two proposals to amend its Audit Program with a flexible alignment framework and an AI-security scan pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and idle stablecoins to the Treasury Management Portfolio for yield generation. Voting ends April 9.UnlocksApril 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.April 8: Stable (STABLE) to unlock 4.14% of its circulating value worth $23.97 million.April 9: Aptos (APT) to unlock 0.68% of its circulating supply worth $9.56 million.Token LaunchesApril 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event to occur.

Conferences

April 8: Token Americas 2026 (Mami)April 9: Thank God For Bitcoin 2026 (Texas)April 9–12: BitBlockBoom 2026 (Texas)April 11–12: MIT Bitcoin Expo 2026 (Massachusetts)April 13: Solana Summit 2026 (New York)