02:29 PM EST, 11/18/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Inflation is unlikely to accelerate much from here on out as consumers trade down and cut back on expenses amid high prices, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday.

Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index accelerated to 3% year over year in September.

That likely translates to personal consumption expenditures inflation almost a full point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, Barkin said Tuesday in prepared remarks for a speech in Virginia.

While inflation remains elevated, driven by factors including high goods prices, there are positive signs such as easing shelter price growth and low oil prices, Barkin -- who is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year -- said.

"Our outreach leads me to believe inflation remains somewhat elevated but isn't likely to increase much," Barkin said. "We hear consumers are trading down, pushing back on higher prices by moving to private label, repairing rather than replacing, and shopping at value-priced retailers. We also hear they are trading off, maybe paying for a new phone by forgoing a vacation."

Barkin offered no guidance regarding the FOMC's December policy decision as he awaited official data releases that were delayed due to the record-long government shutdown, which ended last week. The nonfarm payrolls report for September is scheduled for a Thursday release.

"You may notice nothing I just said gives any guidance for our next meeting," he said. "That's intentional, as I think we have a lot to learn between now and then."

Last month, the FOMC reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points for a second straight meeting amid concerns regarding the labor market. Minutes of policymakers' October meeting are scheduled to be released Wednesday.

The probability that the Fed will cut rates by another quarter percentage point next month rose to 49% Tuesday from 42% Monday, but was lower compared with 67% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

While there's pressure on inflation and employment, "we also see mitigants on both sides, with consumer pushback and productivity improvements limiting inflation and labor supply slowing at roughly the same pace as labor demand, reducing the hit to unemployment," Barkin said.

On Monday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank should move "slowly" with its monetary policy easing as the balance of risks has shifted. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, however, said he'd support another rate cut in December.