financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
INSTANT VIEW: US inflation rises moderately in June
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
INSTANT VIEW: US inflation rises moderately in June
Jul 26, 2024 6:33 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. prices rose moderately in June, underscoring an improving inflation environment that potentially positions the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index nudged up 0.1% last month after being unchanged in May, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. In the 12 months through June, the PCE price index climbed 2.5% after rising 2.6% in May.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.2% last month. That followed an unrevised 0.1% gain in May.

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: S&P 500 E-minis pare gains modestly after data, last up 0.70%

BONDS: The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was sightly lower, down about 2 basis points to about 4.22%

FOREX: The dollar index edged lower, at 104.28 vs 104.41 earlier

COMMENTS:

STAN SHIPLEY, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, EVERCORE ISI, NEW YORK

"PCE is a little firmer than expected. It was weak in the goods sector, especially motor vehicle spending because we know what happened to the warm weather. That should rebound in July and August. These are actually good reads for the headline and core. Going forward in the next couple of months, they're going to be higher than this."

"Inflation readings are well-contained overall. As for the Fed, they're looking at long term, like five years and 10 years, and yes, the Fed will be successful at containing inflation at its 2% target. The Fed will probably hold next week. It will be a surprise if they cut next week. They will probably say that they could move in September. The market has some odds of a 50 basis-point cut in September and we think that's overly dovish."

BRET KENWELL, U.S. INVESTMENT ANALYST AT ETORO, PETOSKEY, MICHIGAN

"The June PCE report was mostly in-line with economists' expectations, while year-over-year core PCE came in just slightly ahead of estimates. Although year-over-year core PCE came in slightly higher than expected, there was nothing in the report that suggests there's an unexpected reacceleration in inflation. Along with a lower-than-expected CPI report earlier this month and a recent trend of lower inflation figures, this should give the Fed the green light to cut rates later this quarter."

"All eyes will shift to Chair Powell at next week's Fed meeting, with the hope and expectation that he will set the stage for a rate cut in September. The Fed has been very transparent in recent years, telegraphing its actions well in advance and adding more certainty to the mix, and markets like certainty."

VAIL HARTMAN, INTEREST RATE STRATEGIST, BMO CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK

"I think that it was a classic relief rally...the upside surprise angst that was instilled based on the quarterly data yesterday was to some extent overpriced, so that's why I think that we had the relief rally and it did bring the three-month annualized rate (for core PCE) down to a year-to-date low of 2.3%, so the more recent trend is building upon the market's confidence that we are on a trajectory that would get us to 2% over the long run. So, I think that this is just another month of good inflation data from the Fed's preferred measure of inflation."

BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BROOKFIELD, WISCONSIN

"Everybody's waiting to find out if the Fed is going to be confident enough to cut. If this doesn't make the Fed confident enough, nothing will."

"The economy is slowing and if they don't cut it could screech to a halt. They do have some time because certainly there's still some economic momentum but that economic momentum is fading fast. I think they'll cut in September. They could cut on Wednesday, but I don't think they will just because it seems they might want to get a little bit more data, or at least key up a cut. So they might not want to just shift from a hold to a cut without first telegraphing that a cut is coming."

"If this was under Greenspan, or Bernanke, they probably would have cut but Janet Yellen really set the precedent for trying to really enhance that forward guidance. And Powell has taken it to an extreme."

RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, NEW JERSEY 

"Personal income and spending was revised to 0.4%, that's a solid improvement in income and spending with easing inflation. So you've got a pretty nice report here that further emboldens the soft landing narrative."

"After a rough week, on a summer Friday the markets (today) have a chance to bounce higher." 

CHRIS LARKIN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, HEAD OF TRADING AND INVESTING, E*TRADE FROM MORGAN STANLEY, NEW YORK

"Overall, it's been a good week for the Fed. The economy appears to be on solid ground, and PCE inflation essentially remained steady. But a rate cut next week remains a long shot. And while there's plenty of time for the economic picture to change before the September FOMC meeting, the numbers have been trending in the Fed's direction."

(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Rising government debt poses greatest risk to US market standing, says BlackRock
Rising government debt poses greatest risk to US market standing, says BlackRock
Jun 30, 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Surging U.S. government debt may sap investor appetite for key U.S. assets like long-dated Treasuries and the dollar, bolstering the case for turning to opportunities beyond U.S. borders, BlackRock said on Monday. President Donald Trump's tariffs spurred market volatility this year and raised doubts over the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Fears of de-dollarization remain...
Texas Manufacturing Contraction Improves Less Than Expected, Dallas Fed Survey Shows
Texas Manufacturing Contraction Improves Less Than Expected, Dallas Fed Survey Shows
Jun 30, 2025
03:19 PM EDT, 06/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Texas manufacturing sector's contraction eased less than projected in June, while uncertainty grew amid shrinking demand, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas showed Monday. The general business activity index improved to minus 12.7 this month from minus 15.3 in May. The consensus was for a minus 10 reading in a...
Fed's Goolsbee sees no stagflation but 'definitely' things could get worse
Fed's Goolsbee sees no stagflation but 'definitely' things could get worse
Jun 30, 2025
(Reuters) -Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Monday said that with unemployment near 4% and inflation around 2.5% and falling, he sees no possibility that tariffs or another supply-side shock could in the near term cause actual 1970s-style stagflation, when the unemployment was double today's rate and inflation was above 13%. But there's definitely the possibility of both...
Nonfarm Payroll Growth Likely to Decelerate in June, UBS Says
Nonfarm Payroll Growth Likely to Decelerate in June, UBS Says
Jun 30, 2025
12:57 PM EDT, 06/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Employment gains in the US are likely to slow down in June sequentially, though not enough to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy at its next meeting, UBS Securities said in a note e-mailed Monday. The brokerage expects the world's largest economy to add 100,000 nonfarm payrolls this month,...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved