09:59 AM EDT, 04/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- A barrage of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and a particularly strong March employment report are pushing down the odds of a June rate cut.
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 54.8% chance of a rate cut being priced in for the June 11-12 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, down from 65.9% at the same time Thursday, while chances for a reduction by the July 30-31 meeting fell to 75.5% from 80.7% at the same time Thursday.
There is a 91.7% chance of lower rates priced in by the Sept. 17-18 meeting compared with 94.6% on Thursday.
Nonfarm payrolls surged by 303,000 in March, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% on a jump in household employment and a decline in unemployment as labor force participation surged. The pace of hourly earnings growth accelerated from February, though the year-over-year rate slowed.
Fed speakers have urged patience this week, suggesting that further evidence is needed that inflation is slowing before the FOMC can consider rate cuts and that the Fed can wait for that evidence due to the strong labor market.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari put a finer point on it on Thursday, saying that inflation does not slow further, it is possible that there could be no rate cuts this year.