03:23 PM EDT, 10/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US labor market outlook worsened further in September as earnings growth expectations reached the lowest in more than four years, while unemployment views increased, a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed Tuesday.

Median one-year earnings growth projection dropped 0.1 percentage point sequentially to 2.4% last month, the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the Fed branch's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Mean unemployment expectations -- or the probability that the unemployment rate in the US will be higher one year from now -- rose 2 percentage points to 41.1% in September.

The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months rose 0.4 percentage point to 14.9%, while the odds of finding a new job in the next three months rebounded to 47.4% from a series low of 44.9% in August, according to the survey.

Carlyle Group ( CG ) data showed Tuesday that the US economy likely added 17,000 jobs in September, indicating a weaker-than-expected print as a federal government shutdown delayed the official nonfarm payrolls report last week. The shutdown entered its seventh day Tuesday, delaying the August trade report.

Last month, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point, noting increased downside risks to employment and signaling further policy easing later this year. Minutes from that FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released Wednesday.

"Based on earlier data and prior concerns of labor market weakness, market participants anticipate further Fed action in the coming months, with two Fed rate cuts priced in by year-end," Stifel said in a Tuesday note to clients.

Last week, global outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said that US job cuts in 2025 will likely surpass a million for the first time since 2020. Automatic Data Processing ( ADP ) said US private jobs decreased by 32,000 last month as employers remained "cautious" with hiring.

US consumers' median one-year inflation outlook increased to 3.4% from 3.2% sequentially in September, while the five-year view advanced to 3% from 2.9%, the New York Fed survey showed Tuesday. The three-year projection held steady at 3%, according to the report.

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