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March Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Estimates, Monthly Wage Growth Accelerates
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March Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Estimates, Monthly Wage Growth Accelerates
Apr 5, 2024 8:00 AM

10:33 AM EDT, 04/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US economy added more jobs than expected in March while monthly wage growth accelerated, triggering markets to scale back their expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin easing its monetary policy as soon as in June.

Total nonfarm payrolls climbed by 303,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The consensus was for a 214,000 gain, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg. Gains for February were revised down by 5,000 to 270,000 and increased by 27,000 for January.

Private payrolls rose by 232,000 in March following 207,000 growth the month prior, ahead of the consensus of 170,000 on Bloomberg. The unemployment rate came in at 3.8%, meeting market expectations, compared with 3.9% in February.

"With the labor market still strong and the economy humming, the (Federal Open Market Committee) can afford to be patient and wait for clearer signs that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2% before dialing back the policy rate," TD Economics Senior Economist Thomas Feltmate wrote in a note.

Average hourly earnings gained 0.3% sequentially and 4.1% on an annual basis, both in line with Wall Street's views. The monthly measure reflected an acceleration from February's 0.1% gain, while the annual gain was the slowest pace since June 2021, Feltmate said.

Markets widely expect the FOMC to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% on May 1, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. For the June meeting, there's now a 56% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, down from 59% on Thursday.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said most policymakers expect that it would be appropriate to start reducing interest rates at some point in 2024, though more evidence is needed that inflation is easing.

The service industry added 190,000 jobs in March, unchanged from the month prior. Transportation and warehousing employment gains slashed to 1,200 jobs from 22,500 while private education and health services accelerated to 88,000 from 82,000. The goods-producing sector added 42,000 jobs, up from 17,000 in February.

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