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May US Personal Income, Spending Growth Expected to Accelerate, PCE Price Growth to Moderate
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May US Personal Income, Spending Growth Expected to Accelerate, PCE Price Growth to Moderate
Jun 27, 2024 12:16 PM

02:50 PM EDT, 06/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Personal income and spending growth is expected to accelerate in May, while the PCE price measures--closely watched by the Federal Reserve--are expected to slow, compared with the gains in the previous month.

The May data are scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

Personal income is forecast to rise by 0.4% in May, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, following a 0.3% gain in April, with wages and salaries adding significantly to the headline reading this month.

Private nonfarm payrolls rose by 229,000 in May after a 158,000 jobs gain in April and the average workweek remained at 34.3 hours, lifting the aggregate hours index by 0.2%, while hourly earnings rose by 0.4% after a 0.2% gain in the previous month.

For consumption, control group retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles, gas building materials and food services and feeds into the goods PCE calculation, were up 0.4% in May after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.

Analysts expect personal consumption to increase by 0.3% in May after a 0.2% gain in April when services spending is added to goods spending.

Real PCE, consumption after adjustment for inflation, is expected to rise by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline.

Overall PCE prices are forecast to hold steady after 0.3% gain in the previous three months, while core prices, which exclude the food and energy categories, are forecast to rise by 0.1% after April's 0.2% increase.

Analysts expect the year-over-year rate for the overall price reading to slow to 2.6% from 2.7% in the previous two months, while the rate for core prices is expected to moderate to 2.6% after three straight readings of 2.8%.

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