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Most of the NPAs will likely be recognised in Q4 and Q1 numbers, says Mahesh of Kotak Securities
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Most of the NPAs will likely be recognised in Q4 and Q1 numbers, says Mahesh of Kotak Securities
Aug 27, 2018 3:03 AM

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) February 12th circular deadline to resolve stressed loans over Rs 2,000 crore ends today.

To discuss the impact of the above development on banks and companies, CNBC-TV18 spoke to a couple of experts including MB Mahesh, banking analyst at Kotak Institutional Equities, Anjan Ghosh, chief rating officer at ICRA and Subodh Rai, senior director & head analytics at Crisil Ratings.

Mahesh is of the view that the non performing asset (NPA) recognition with respect to the February 12 circular should be more or less in the Q4 and Q1 numbers.

According to Mahesh, if State Bank of India is able to clear off a few power assets from their portfolio, that should be taken as a positive.

"It would be in the best interest of banks in general to accept whatever resolutions are available on hand and move forward, adding that it is likely that this will create some capital constraint for banks," he said.

With regards to Yes Bank and reappointment of Rana Kapoor, Mahesh said," His extension will be positive for the bank but the house has a negative rating on the bank because given the nature of the balance sheet, the fair value is closer to 2 times price to book. "

"So at current prices, the house is not comfortable to ascribe a value which is higher than that," he said, adding that they would prefer ICICI Bank and SBI from the corporate banking theme.

Rai of Crisil Ratings is of the view that with regards to PSU banks most of the NPAs have been recognised and so he does not expect an elevation on the NPAs and provisioning. He also does not expect sharp jump in capitalization need because of this development.

There have been a spate of rating upgrades being announced on the exchange. Talking about the rating upgrade/downgrade ratio, Rai said"If one looks at credit ratings which define number of upgrades versus downgrade it has been more than 1 for 2018."

“Credit ratio was 1.7 times compared to 1.2 times in FY2017. Most of these upgrades have been because the debt levels of corporates haven’t picked up because private capex hasn’t picked up and also because of large liquidity infusion, the networth has gone up,” he said.

Agreeing with Rai, Ghosh said for them as well the credit ratio is higher than 1 for the last 18 months, which is around 1.4-1.5. “Upgrades have been broad based and not necessarily linked to consumption.”

Upgrades have been visible in diverse sectors like building materials, ceramic tiles, construction equipment, chemcials, etc., while stress continues in spaces like telecom, power excluding renewables, sugar, said Ghosh.

For spaces like textile, building and construction, the picture remained mixed, added Ghosh.

According to Rai and Ghosh, within real estate, the commercial space is improving but residential space continues to face challenges.

With regards to the NBFCs, both Rai and Ghosh believe that the overall credit quality would remain fairly stable and don’t expect asset quality pressure although yield compression is likely for them.

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