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OPEC Maintains Oil Demand Growth Outlook; Lowers Views on 2025 Global, US Economies
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OPEC Maintains Oil Demand Growth Outlook; Lowers Views on 2025 Global, US Economies
May 26, 2025 7:57 AM

01:12 PM EDT, 05/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday maintained its global oil demand projections for 2025 and 2026, but reduced its world and US economic growth forecasts for this year.

The cartel continues to expect oil demand to grow by 1.30 million barrels a day this year and by 1.28 million barrels next year, it said in its latest monthly report. Robust air travel demand and road mobility are some of the factors that should provide a boost to oil consumption in 2025, the OPEC said.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 0.4% at $63.41 a barrel in Wednesday afternoon trade, while Brent declined 0.5% to $66.31. WTI is up 8.8% so far in May, while Brent has gained 4.7%.

The OPEC trimmed its world economic growth estimate to 2.9% from 3% for 2025, citing a "recent moderation" in activity, but reiterated its outlook of a 3.1% gain for 2026. Gross domestic product growth projections for the US were revised down to 1.7% from 2.1% for this year and to 2.1% from 2.2% for the next.

Late last month, US government data showed that the world's largest economy contracted in the March quarter, representing the first quarterly decline in three years.

"Trade-related uncertainties have continued to weigh on the outlook for the US economy, particularly through their impact on consumer confidence and inflationary pressures," the OPEC said Wednesday. "While no definitive resolution to the ongoing trade disputes has been reached, the overall trajectory continues to point toward gradual de-escalation, as seen with China and the UK."

The US and China recently agreed on a 90-day suspension of reciprocal duties on each other's goods. The two countries had been in a trade war since US President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs early last month. Trump previously paused certain levies on non-retaliating countries. The Trump administration recently reached a trade agreement with the UK and hinted at further deals in the pipeline.

Inflationary pressures are projected to resume as increasing import and input costs filter through the real economy, the OPEC said. "However, the pause in monetary easing across major economies may help moderate inflation," it wrote in the report, adding that the US Federal Reserve is expected to resume rate cuts in the second half of 2025.

The OPEC now expects liquid supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, or DoC, to grow by 810,000 barrels a day this year and by 800,000 barrels in 2026, down from its previous expectations of 910,000 and 900,000 barrels, respectively. The DoC is the name for OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and non-OPEC allies.

"Assuming that reasonable trade agreements are reached with most of the (US') trading partners, global economic uncertainty is expected to ease," the OPEC said.

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