01:06 PM EDT, 10/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Key oil-producing nations may be moving carefully with their output adjustments in a market that's already grappling with geopolitical uncertainty and excess supply, according to analysts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies will raise output by 137,000 barrels a day in November, a smaller bump than what was expected before the decision made early in October.

"This is very much a calculated move considering the wider market dynamics and crude availability," Rystad Energy Vice President Janiv Shah told MT Newswires in an emailed statement.

OPEC+ is expected to announce a similar increase when it meets this Sunday, Shah said.

Sparta Senior Oil Market Analyst June Goh said this modest pace of increases allows OPEC+ "to unwind cuts in a pragmatic manner, as it allows them to test if the market is truly in the oil glut or purely facing a seasonal weakness due to peak refinery turnarounds" in October and November.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 2.2% so far in October, while Brent is down 3.3%. Both were trading higher intraday Friday.

Monthly oil prices have declined since August amid uncertainty driven by global conflicts and US trade policies, while supply of the key commodity climbed. The overall surplus averaged 1.9 million barrels a day from January through September, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Trump administration on Oct. 22 announced sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, citing the country's "lack of serious commitment to a peace process" to end the war in Ukraine.

Russian crude is trading at a discount of $13.4 per barrel against dated Brent free-on-board, compared with a $12.55 discount two weeks ago, Kpler Senior Crude Oil Analyst Muyu Xu said via email. However, if Washington's target is to completely cut off Russian oil exports, that seems unlikely, Xu told MT Newswires.

"Sellers and traders will almost certainly find ways to circumvent the sanctions, while some buyers will be tempted to lift the cargoes if prices fall low enough," Xu said.

Indian Oil will continue purchasing Russian crude as long as the state-owned refiner complies with sanctions, Finance Director Anuj Jain said on an investor call.

Tensions between the US and China flared up recently after Beijing expanded export controls on rare earths, but the standoff eased as leaders of the two countries met in South Korea on Thursday. US President Donald Trump reportedly said he would lower tariffs on China to 47% from 57%.

Rystad's Shah sees an "extremely long" fourth-quarter balance, driven by supply growth from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers and seasonal demand weakening. That "puts a bearish shadow on benchmark prices," Shah said.

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, in line with economists' expectations. During a post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the lack of official economic data because of the ongoing US government shutdown, which has dragged on for a month.

The Federal Open Market Committee's decision was seen as "supportive for short- and medium-term demand and global growth sentiment," Rystad Energy Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note. That's offering a "tailwind to commodities sensitive to economic activity."

Sparta's Goh sees support ahead for oil prices.

"With prompt crude timespreads firmly in backwardation and oil demand to rise particularly in December with refineries back from maintenance season, Brent should remain comfortably above ($60 per barrel) range."