09:27 AM EDT, 07/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has taken decisive action in its role as swing producer, markedly increasing oil supply in the face of heightened geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty to keep oil and gasoline prices down and help spur an expected record-setting July 4 holiday weekend for US drivers.

The American Automobile Association, or AAA, won't have hard figures for a few months on the number of domestic travelers between June 28 and July 6, but the organization said on June 20 it expected that 72.2 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home, including a record 61.6 million by car thanks to the lowest summer gas prices since 2021.

The 13-nation OPEC, along with 10 non-OPEC producers, together known as OPEC+, reversed course this year, announcing monthly production increases of 411,000 barrels per day for May, June and July before announcing on Saturday its plan to raise production by 548,000 barrels a day in August.

GasBuddy, an app that provides data on gas prices, said the average price of unleaded gas in the US is currently $3.15 per gallon, down roughly 40 cents from last year's average and below its full-year 2025 forecast of $3.22.

"Part of that is due to OPEC increasing oil production at a fairly brisk and unexpected pace," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in an interview with MT Newswires. The Trump administration's April announcement of significant tariffs on many of the United States' largest trading partners also played a role.

"We didn't see prices shooting up as high as they usually do in the spring because of [tariffs], and now oil prices are lower than what we would've expected because of OPEC's increased oil production," De Haan said.

Oil and gas prices have remained relatively stable in the face of rising geopolitical tensions, most notably the recent conflict pitting Israel and the US against Iran.

"You had not one but two geopolitical incidences in a region of the world where, 10 years ago, if that had happened, you'd see a massive spike in the risk premium," said Vincent Piazza, US oil and gas senior equity analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, in an interview. "If you take a look at the price action of crude, [West Texas Intermediate] or Brent, after each incident, whether it was Israel attacking, or the US joining in, that risk premium diluted quickly."

Piazza attributed the moderate risk premium, in part, to enhanced production by the US, whose levels peaked in the fourth quarter last year at around 13.7 million barrels per day, but are averaging a still-significant 13.4 million.

"What it means is that traders are much more comfortable selling [crude] down considering, A: These conflicts don't seem to be prolonged, and B: There's been an acknowledgement by producing nations that higher prices are actually detrimental in the long run," he said.

Actions by oil producers have had the added benefit of helping keep US inflation in check despite concerns that Trump's tariffs will put upward pressure on prices.

"OPEC-plus putting barrels back into the marketplace, settling prices, actually has a positive impact because energy molecules have permeated all parts of the economy and are embedded within the economic value chain," Piazza said. "That's one piece where inflationary pressure is not likely to be seen at a very crucial time."