financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Options players ready for market swings after US inflation data
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Options players ready for market swings after US inflation data
Mar 11, 2024 12:20 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders in the U.S. equity options market have grown skittish ahead of Tuesday's release of inflation data that could sway the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory.

Options on the S&P 500-tracking SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF were primed for a 1% swing in the fund's shares in either direction by the end of trading on Tuesday. That's larger than the 0.7% move traders had been pricing for stocks ahead of the January inflation report, according to a Cantor Fitzgerald analysis.

Stronger-than-expected consumer price and employment data have whittled away at investors' expectations for how much the Fed will cut interest rates this year. More evidence of sticky inflation could push investors to further pare their bets on Fed easing, potentially weighing on a rally that has seen the S&P 500 rise 7% this year.

U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in January, amid a surge in the cost of rental housing, prompting a 1.4% drop for the benchmark stock index on Feb. 13, when the data was released.

After last month's stronger-than-expected report, "there is certainly more trepidation regarding tomorrow's data and this will add to the nervousness of the options market today," said Matthew Tym, head of equity derivatives trading at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Investors are now pricing in 94 basis points of rate cuts this year, compared to around 150 basis points they had priced in early January, according to futures tied to the fed funds. So far, however, a resilient economy, better-than-expected earnings and confidence that the Fed will nevertheless cut rates several times before the year is up have supported stocks.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the CPI likely increased 0.4% in February, with the annual increase in prices at 3.1%. The core CPI is also forecast advancing 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase slowing to 3.7% from 3.9% in January.

The S&P 500 index was down 0.16% Monday afternoon and the Cboe Volatility Index - an options-based gauge of investors' expectation for near-term stock market gyrations perked up 0.46 point to 15.20, a near three-week high.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
China's exports seen rising more quickly in June amid fresh tariff fears: Reuters poll
China's exports seen rising more quickly in June amid fresh tariff fears: Reuters poll
Jul 9, 2024
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's exports likely grew at the fastest pace in fifteen months in June, as manufacturers front-load shipments in anticipation of tariffs from a growing number of the country's major export markets. Trade data on Friday is expected to show exports grew 8.0% year-on-year by value, according to the median forecast of 31 economists in a Reuters poll,...
Goldman Sachs asset managers see US economy, stocks slowing
Goldman Sachs asset managers see US economy, stocks slowing
Jul 9, 2024
(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) executives expect the U.S. economy to grow at a slower clip of about 2% in the second half of 2024, they said on Tuesday, with equity indexes seen largely flat due to declining earnings growth and political anxieties. That makes the investment landscape more complex, but one that still presents opportunities, including a broader...
Regulators Close to Agreeing on Changes to Capital Plan for Big Banks, Fed Chair Powell Says
Regulators Close to Agreeing on Changes to Capital Plan for Big Banks, Fed Chair Powell Says
Jul 9, 2024
02:13 PM EDT, 07/09/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US banking regulators are close to agreeing on the substance of changes to a plan that would increase the capital requirements for large banks, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday. But Powell didn't give specifics as nothing has been agreed yet with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and...
June CPI Report On Traders' Radar: Analysts Predict S&P 500 Move For Wednesday Under Different Inflation Scenarios
June CPI Report On Traders' Radar: Analysts Predict S&P 500 Move For Wednesday Under Different Inflation Scenarios
Jul 10, 2024
The all-important consumer price inflation report for June – one of the important reports due before the Federal Reserve’s July 30-31 monetary policy committee meeting – is expected on Wednesday. What Happened: Economists, on average, expect June’s headline monthly consumer price inflation rate at 0.1%, a slight tick up from unchanged prices in May. Annually, the CPI inflation may have...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved