financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
PIMCO trims 2024 Fed rate cut expectations to 2 after jobs report
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
PIMCO trims 2024 Fed rate cut expectations to 2 after jobs report
Apr 5, 2024 10:21 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. bond giant PIMCO has trimmed its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to two after data on Friday showing the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected last month, said a portfolio manager.

"We did have two to three cuts this year and our base case now is most likely two cuts this year," Mike Cudzil, a managing director and generalist portfolio manager at the asset management firm, told Reuters.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 303,000 jobs in March compared with expectations for an increase of 200,000, data showed on Friday. The figures come on the heels of a series of reports showing U.S. economic activity is proving more resilient to high interest rates than many had predicted.

"Directionally this means a little bit less out of the Fed, and that's a good thing, the economy is proving for now that it can handle higher rates," Cudzil said.

U.S. Treasury yields jumped after Friday's jobs data as the market continued to trim back expectations of rate cuts this year. Expectations for a first 25 basis point rate cut in June stood at 51% on Friday, down from 59% on Thursday, CME Group data showed.

PIMCO has been underweight duration in portfolios over the past few months as it deemed the market was too optimistic on rate cuts this year, Cudzil said. Duration is a measure of a bond portfolio sensitivity to changes in interest rates.

Earlier this year traders expected a total of 150 basis points of cuts in 2024, and that is now down to 67 basis points, which is more in line with the asset manager's expectations on the path of interest rates, Cudzil said.

"I think it makes sense to get closer to neutral and if anything we're looking potentially at when we should get overweight on duration," he said.

Fed officials projected last month three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, even if only by a small margin.

Others in the market on Friday continued to stick to previous calls of three rate cuts this year because they anticipate inflation will moderate despite strong job growth.

"While exceptionally strong, the employment report is consistent with the Fed starting to ease this year in June," analysts at BofA Securities said in a note. "A jump in labor supply can allow for stronger growth without overheating effects," they said.

Rick Rieder, BlackRock's ( BLK ) chief investment officer of global fixed income, said an expansion of the workforce was positive for the economy as long as it kept wages contained.

Still, he said, Friday's jobs report put more emphasis on inflation readings over the next few months to assess the path of interest rates this year.

"Expectations have got to be somewhere between two to three cuts, and I think that today's data moves the needle ever so slightly towards two," he said.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
India looking into 'freak' incidents like damage to Sikkim's Chungthang dam: RK Singh
India looking into 'freak' incidents like damage to Sikkim's Chungthang dam: RK Singh
Oct 18, 2023
Stressing on the need to have quick ramp up and ramp down energy sources for grid balancing, the minister described hydroelectric power's role as essential in the path to energy transition as wind energy is intermittent and the sun doesn't shine 24×7.
JPMorgan has a new way to gauge its green progress
JPMorgan has a new way to gauge its green progress
Nov 15, 2023
As the largest energy banker, JPMorgan is a frequent target of criticism over Wall Street’s role in the climate crisis. At the same time, the bank is a leading US arranger of green bonds, making it vulnerable to Republicans seeking to protect the fossil fuel industry.
Zoomed Out | Critical Minerals — why India's current strategy to become self-reliant is so vital
Zoomed Out | Critical Minerals — why India's current strategy to become self-reliant is so vital
Nov 29, 2023
Internationally, there are genuine security concerns related to the criticality in building more diverse and dependable value chains for critical minerals, about their environmental and social sustainability, and technological challenges. While, India has taken the right steps for creating an ecosystem for accelerated exploration and production of critical and new age minerals, observes FICCI Mining Committee Co-Chair Pankaj Satija.
In fight to curb climate change, a grim report shows world is struggling to get on track
In fight to curb climate change, a grim report shows world is struggling to get on track
Nov 14, 2023
The State of Climate Action report released on Tuesday by the World Resources Institute, Climate Action Tracker, the Bezos Earth Fund and others looks at what's needed in several sectors of the global economy power, transportation, buildings, industry, finance and forestry to fit in a world that limits warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial times, the goal the world adopted at Paris in 2015. The globe has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid-19th century.
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved