Cryptocurrency punters are largely confident that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

A Done Deal?

As of this writing, the odds of a quarter-point reduction stood at 98% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. On the other hand, there was only a 1% chance that the rates would stay at their current range of 4.00% to 4.25%.

More than $208 million has been wagered on the outcome already. The market’s resolution will depend on the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement following its October meeting.

Note that U.S. residents are currently barred from using Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based platform, but it is expected to start operations in the near future.

Meanwhile, bettors on the federally-regulated platform Kalshi saw a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which showed a 99.9% chance of the central bank announcing a 25 basis point cut after the meeting.

See Also: Polymarket Plans Token Launch, Eyes $15 Billion Valuation In New Funding Round

Will Powell Turn Dovish?

Interestingly, the odds of a December rate cut were also significantly high on Polymarket, at 85%,

Oxford Economics' Ryan Sweet noted that the ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic data and that the situation might prompt the Fed to consider another rate cut to avoid falling behind in data-driven decision-making.

Attention will also shift to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s policy statement. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave expects Powell to keep things intentionally vague due to the absence of government data.

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