The paradox of the last quarter has been that global equity markets, in fact all global risk assets, have been reaching higher and higher but the economies in almost all countries are healing very gradually, in some cases even affected by a third and a fourth surge of the infection.

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How to marry this paradox and what lies in store for 2021? To 'answer all these, CNBC-TV18’s Latha Venkatesh spoke to Ethan Harris, head of Global Economics, BofA Global Research.

On dollar weakness, Harris said, “Dollar is reacting to a risk-on environment in capital market, so the capital markets are looking through the weakness of the data, the latest surge in virus, and they are focused on a better economy next year with the vaccine rolling out and with new big fiscal actions so there is this kind of a sense that the world is going to be a safer place next year and I think that hurts the dollar. You don’t need to keep so much money invested in the US if the world is a safe place.”

On the global economy, he said, “I think in the developed world, particularly in Northern hemisphere obviously they are headed for a very weak period. Europe probably already has negative growth, and the US is moving into negative growth. November was the first month where we really started to see the recovery stumbling. As we get into December, January, and February you are going to be looking at some very weak number basically decline in activities. So the year is going to start off with these economies stumbling and then they will catch up and take the lead probably in the second quarter.”

“You got a big fiscal package coming particularly in the US, the vaccine rollout will be faster in the developed market than in emerging markets and so by the second quarter you should see an improvement but first we have to get through this rather dark winter we are facing.”

To know more, watch this interview.

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(Edited by : Bivekananda Biswas)

First Published:Dec 31, 2020 6:42 PM IST