Inflation in the Seattle area inched up over the summer, sparking concerns that prices are starting to rise quickly again after a few years of welcome cooling.
In the Seattle, Tacoma and Bellevue region, prices for goods and services increased 2.8% over the year ending in August, according to the latest consumer price index published Thursday. That's a 0.1 percentage point uptick compared with the June inflation rate.
Across the U.S., prices rose 2.9%, also an increase compared with prior months. Policymakers target a 2% rate of inflation.
Trends in Seattle are tracking the national trends," said Stacey Jones, professor of economics at Seattle University. That means people across the country are "experiencing the same macroeconomic forces, the tariffs, the overall state of the economy, the state of interest rates."
But the Seattle area is also seeing some unique affordability challenges, Jones pointed out. Energy costs are significantly higher than the rest of the U.S., and rising faster, too. In the year ending in August, energy prices leapt 7.3% in the Seattle area. By contrast, energy prices rose just 0.2% across the U.S.
In the Seattle area, food, clothing, furniture and used cars also saw notable price jumps over the past year.
Looming over the latest inflation numbers are widespread concerns about tariff-driven price increases. In April, President Donald Trump announced global tariffs, which are taxes that raise the cost of imports. Typically, importers pass the bulk of these costs on to consumers.
That could mean higher prices and tighter budgets. Tariffs could increase the cost of goods in Washington between 2% and 3% on top of baseline inflation each quarter through 2029, according to a recent analysis by the state Office of Financial Management.
"This shows that the tariffs would have a significant impact on the wallets of Washingtonians, said Abdelmoumine Traoré, a senior economist at the OFM.
So far, the federal government's implementation of its trade policy has been uneven.
Tariffs have disrupted trade across multiple sectors, raising the cost of doing business for many companies in Washington. At the same time, the Trump administration has carved out exemptions, introduced temporary reprieves and announced preliminary trade deals with a handful of countries.
All that has made it hard to ascertain exactly how much inflation can be attributed to trade policy at the present moment.
For Seattle-area residents, the pinch of any inflation will likely feel particularly sharp. That's because prices for consumer goods and services are already more expensive than the U.S. overall.
Looking forward, economists are watching the U.S. Federal Reserve closely in anticipation of a key rate cut, which could lower interest rates.
For months, the central bank has been under pressure from the Trump administration to cut the federal funds rate, which currently ranges between 4.25% and 4.5%. Typically, the Fed cuts its key rate when employment is weak, in an attempt to spur economic activity. But it keeps rates high during periods of inflation, as a way to rein in spending.
The latest price index numbers raise the possibility that the central bank might cut rates more slowly and over a longer period, said Jones, in an effort to keep inflation in check.