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September Producer Prices Rebound as Fed Considers Next Move
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September Producer Prices Rebound as Fed Considers Next Move
Nov 25, 2025 10:05 AM

12:37 PM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US producer prices turned positive in September, likely intensifying debate among Federal Reserve officials that seem divided over the central bank's next policy move.

The producer price index rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis two months ago, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consensus in a survey compiled by Bloomberg pointed to a 0.3% rise in September.

Annually, cost growth was unchanged at 2.7%, beating analysts' estimate for a 2.6% rise.

"The latest read on inflation is likely to intensify the ongoing debate among Fed officials as to their next policy move," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said in a note. "While inflation held steady in September, posting no additional upward momentum on an annual basis, the lack of downward improvement from a still-elevated level raises concerns any further policy easing could risk an acceleration of price pressures, or at the very least, stunt potential gains back towards the 2% target."

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack have recently cautioned against another rate cut amid high inflation, while policymakers including New York Fed's John Williams back further easing to support a weak labor market.

Markets are pricing in an 83% probability that the Fed, which has already delivered two back-to-back rate cuts this year, will reduce its benchmark lending rate by a quarter percentage point on Dec. 10, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The PPI report's release was delayed by more than five weeks because of the record-long federal government shutdown that ended earlier this month. The BLS completed data collection prior to the lapse in federal appropriations, but it could not complete the process until appropriations resumed, the agency said.

The shutdown has impacted the official data flow at a time when Wall Street is looking for clues around the Fed's next move. The BLS won't publish October reports on employment and consumer inflation, while data for November will be delayed compared with their original release dates.

Wholesale goods costs accelerated to 0.9% in September from 0.2% in August, while prices for final demand services were flat.

Consumer inflation reached 3% year over year in September, the BLS reported last month.

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