financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
The jobs data revisions that cost a US government statistician her job
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
The jobs data revisions that cost a US government statistician her job
Aug 4, 2025 10:26 AM

(Reuters) -The revisions to previous estimates of the size of U.S. payrolls gains for May and June that prompted President Donald Trump to fire Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday were by any measure extraordinarily large.

Indeed, the combined downward revision for the two months of 258,000 was the largest - outside of those during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic - since at least 1979. 

Here's a quick graphical breakdown:

FIRST REVISION

The monthly nonfarm payrolls report, released typically on the first Friday of each month, includes an initial estimate of employment changes for the immediately preceding month and revisions to the earlier estimates for the prior two months. BLS makes the revisions because more survey responses come in over the ensuing weeks and because it updates the seasonal factors affecting each month's estimates.

The BLS on Friday said 133,000 fewer jobs had been created in June than first estimated. Over the last several years, the first estimate of the net change in payrolls each month has been revised lower more often than not. 

It has been revised down in eight of the last 12 BLS reports over the last year.

The downward revision on Friday was the largest since the first estimate of payrolls gains for March 2021, published in April 2021, was revised down by 146,000 a month later. Over the last three years through June, the median estimate revision was -10,000. That contrasts with a median increase of 8,000 during the decade before the pandemic and a median increase of 2,000 over the series history since 1979.

SECOND REVISION

The total for May's payroll gains was revised lower by 125,000 in Friday's report, when the third estimate for payrolls for that month was published. That figure was the largest downward reduction of payrolls gains for a second revision - outside of the pandemic era - since the estimate for March 1983 was revised down by 127,000 in the report published in June 1983.     

COMBINED REVISION

The combined downward revision for the two previous months - May and June - was larger than anything reported outside of the pandemic era. Indeed, the estimates for the two prior months combined have more often than not been revised higher. Since 1979, the median two-month combined estimate change was an upward revision of 10,000.

Measured in absolute terms - revisions in either direction - Friday's revision also stands out. There have only been four larger revisions: +709,000 for November and December 2021; -642,000 for March and April 2020; +285,000 for August and September 1983; and +414,000 for April and May 1981.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
China's Xi may visit US in not-too-distant future, Trump says
China's Xi may visit US in not-too-distant future, Trump says
Mar 17, 2025
By Gram Slattery and Trevor Hunnicutt (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit the United States in the not-too-distant future for talks as economic tensions escalate between the powers. Trump has slapped 20% levies on all imports from China since taking office in January, faulting Beijing for not halting the flow...
US civil rights agency warns law firms over workplace DEI policies
US civil rights agency warns law firms over workplace DEI policies
Mar 17, 2025
(Reuters) - The head of the U.S. agency that enforces laws banning workplace discrimination on Monday warned 20 major law firms that their employment policies meant to boost diversity, equity and inclusion may be illegal. ...
Fed's March Meeting Expected To Signal No Hurry On Rate Cuts As Powell 'Likely To Tread Carefully'
Fed's March Meeting Expected To Signal No Hurry On Rate Cuts As Powell 'Likely To Tread Carefully'
Mar 17, 2025
The Federal Reserve is set to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, reinforcing its “not-in-a-hurry” stance on rate cuts while possibly raising inflation forecasts to account for the economic impact of new trade tariffs. The decision will mark the second consecutive meeting at which rates remain unchanged. Policymakers await further progress in taming inflation before considering reductions. The Federal Open...
Correction: S&P 500 Posts Fourth Consecutive Weekly Loss Amid Retaliatory Tariffs, Worsening Consumer Sentiment
Correction: S&P 500 Posts Fourth Consecutive Weekly Loss Amid Retaliatory Tariffs, Worsening Consumer Sentiment
Mar 17, 2025
03:37 PM EDT, 03/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- (Corrects closing value and percentage losses in first two paragraphs in story published Friday.) The Standard and Poor's 500 index fell 2.3% this week, extending losses for the year amid concerns about the expanding global trade war and a bigger-than-expected drop in consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 ended Friday's session at 5,638.94, marking...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved