07:53 AM EST, 11/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday as markets digest Friday's weaker-than-expected October employment report and turn their attention to the two major events of this week -- US Election Day on Tuesday and the Federal Open Market Committee's rate announcement Thursday following its two-day policy setting meeting.

The week starts lightly Monday, with only factory orders data for September on the schedule at 10:00 am ET.

With the results of the presidential election unlikely to be known until later in the week, the focus earlier Tuesday will be on weekly Redbook same-store sales, followed by services conditions readings from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management.

Wednesday's schedule is light, with only weekly mortgage applications data and oil stocks data.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is currently a 98.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction being priced in for Thursday's conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, putting the target range at 4.50% to 4.75%. The chance that the range will be lowered further to 4.25% to 4.5% is seen at 1.7%.

Prior to the 2:00 pm ET FOMC announcement, weekly jobless claims and the first look at Q3 productivity and unit labor costs will be the highlights Thursday.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for November is due to be released Friday.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:

EUR/USD rose to 1.0905 from 1.0832 at the Friday US close and 1.0864 at the same time Friday morning. The Eurozone's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose slightly in October but still indicated contraction, while investor confidence increased in November but remained sharply negative, data released earlier Monday showed. European Central Bank policy board member Frank Elderson is due to speak at 8:30 am ET, followed by board member Elizabeth McCaul at 10:15 am ET. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Dec. 12.

GBP/USD rose to 1.2969 from 1.2918 at the Friday US close and 1.2910 at the same time Friday morning. There are no UK data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when a 25 basis point rate reduction is expected.

USD/JPY fell to 151.7281 from 152.0752 at the Friday US close and 152.7121 at the same time Friday morning. Monday is a holiday in Japan, so there was no data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Dec. 18-19.

USD/CAD fell to 1.3903 from 1.3957 at the Friday US close and 1.3931 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Dec. 11.