07:54 AM EDT, 05/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar fell against its major trading partners early Monday as attention turns to Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Currently, the CME's FedWatch tool shows a 96.9% chance being priced in that the FOMC will hold its target range for its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% and a 3.1% chance of it being lowered to 4.00% to 4.25%.

The week begins Monday with services data for April from S&P Global at 9:45 am ET and then from the Institute for Supply Management at 10:00 am ET.

Tuesday's highlights include international trade data, weekly Redbook same store sales and consumer sentiment.

Weekly mortgage application and petroleum stocks inventory data is due Wednesday before the FOMC meeting, with consumer credit data scheduled to be released after the meeting.

Thursday, weekly jobless claims, productivity data and wholesale inventories will be the key data releases.

Friday's schedule is light, with only the first look at the St. Louis Fed's gross domestic product Nowcast estimate for Q2 due to be released.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:

EUR/USD rose to 1.1340 from 1.1300 at the Friday US close and 1.1326 at the same time Friday morning. Eurozone investor confidence improved in May but still indicated more pessimism than optimism. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for June 4-5.

GBP/USD rose to 1.3317 from 1.3274 at the Friday US close and 1.3295 at the same time Friday morning. Monday is a holiday in the UK, so there are no data on the schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday when a 25 basis point rate reduction is expected.

USD/JPY fell to 143.8021 from 145.0191 at the Friday US close and 144.4982 at the same time Friday morning. Monday is holiday in Japan so there were no data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for June 16-17.

USD/CAD fell to 1.3794 from 1.3810 at the Friday US close and 1.3820 at the same time Friday morning. Canadian reserve assets data for April are due to be released at 8:15 am ET. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for June 4.