(Reuters) -U.S. holiday sales are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, the National Retail Federation forecast on Thursday, even as macroeconomic pressures loom over consumer spending.

The holiday selling season spans the period from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a large chunk of retailers' annual sales.

Persistent inflation and the fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies pose risks, as shoppers would be more cautious about buying extravagant gifts.

"American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.

Spending will rise between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, compared with a 4.3% rise to $976.1 billion in November and December last year, NRF said.

(Reporting by Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Pooja Desai)