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US labor market easing in the face of tariff uncertainty
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US labor market easing in the face of tariff uncertainty
Jun 3, 2025 11:28 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. job openings increased in April, but layoffs posted their biggest rise in nine months, suggesting that labor market conditions were softening as tariff uncertainty dims the economic outlook.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, from the Labor Department on Tuesday also showed the number of people quitting their jobs for greener pastures declined by the most since last November. This was consistent with surveys showing consumers becoming less confident about the jobs market.

Economists say the on-gain, off-again manner in which President Donald Trump's import duties are being implemented has left businesses in limbo and struggling to plan ahead. The labor market continues to anchor the economy.

Despite the rise in April, layoffs remain relatively low.

There were 1.03 job openings for every unemployed person, little changed from 1.02 in March.

"We will call this report another indication of stasis in U.S. companies in the face of tariff uncertainty," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Once companies are more certain that bad times are coming, they will start to shed workers."

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose 191,000 to 7.391 million by the last day of April, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Data for March was revised higher to 7.200 million open positions instead of the previously reported 7.192 million.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.10 million vacancies. Some of April's rise in vacancies was likely a correction following March's sharp decline. Vacancies were concentrated among businesses with one to nine employees and those with a staff complement of 50 to 249.

The professional and business services as well as healthcare and social assistance sectors accounted for the bulk of unfilled positions. Job openings at restaurants and bars dropped 135,000. There were also fewer postings in manufacturing, finance and insurance as well as state and local government education.

Federal government vacancies rose 13,000 despite a hiring freeze implemented by the Trump administration amid cost cutting. The job openings rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in March.

A U.S. trade court last week blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs from going into effect, ruling that the president overstepped his authority. But the tariffs were temporarily reinstated by a federal appeals court a day later, adding to the uncertainty facing businesses.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.

LAYOFFS RISE

Layoffs increased 196,000, the largest rise since last July, to a still-low 1.786 million. Companies are hoarding workers after difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The layoffs rate inched up to 1.1% from 1.0% in March.

Job cuts were confined to small and medium-sized businesses.

They rose in the professional and business services, healthcare and social assistance sectors as well as at restaurants and bars. There were also job cuts in construction and manufacturing industries. But there were fewer layoffs in the government sector.

"The risk for widespread job losses has decreased as the Trump administration has retreated from the most aggressive tariffs initially announced, although uncertainty about trade policy will weigh on business decisions, including hiring," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Hiring increased by 169,000 to 5.573 million, driven by construction, professional and business services, hotels and food services businesses. Hiring declined in the retail, finance and insurance sectors.

The hiring rate edged up to 3.5% from 3.4% in March. Economists, however, viewed the improvement as temporary, pointing to the high number of people collecting unemployment checks.

"We are doubtful the uptick is indicative of employers beginning to ramp up hiring after having hunkered down for the past year," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

With the clouds over the economy darkening, Americans are staying put in their jobs. The number of people quitting their jobs declined 150,000 to 3.194 million.

The quits rate, viewed as a measure of labor market confidence, fell to 2.0% from 2.1% in March, also suggesting subsiding wage inflation. The Conference Board's labor market differential has narrowed considerably this year.

That ebbing confidence could be reinforced by May's employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 130,000 jobs last month after advancing by 177,000 in April, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%, with greater risks of a rise to 4.3%.

"The response to recent trade policy changes has been more caution than action at the outset, but we still expect to see weaker labor market data soon, likely starting with a slower jobs print on Friday and continuing with more sluggish hiring trends going forward," said Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide.

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