The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to a six-month high this week, adding fresh pressure to an already strained housing market as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East pushes oil prices higher and reignites inflation concerns.

Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) reported Thursday that its Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.38%, up from 6.22% the prior week and the highest reading since early September. Rates have now risen for four consecutive weeks.

The jump is tied directly to energy prices. Oil has surged more than 30% since the Iran conflict began in late February, lifting U.S. Treasury yields. Since mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, borrowing costs have followed.

Spring Homebuying Faces Headwinds

The rise undercuts earlier progress. Rates had briefly dipped to 5.98% after President Donald Trump ordered Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) and Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA)  to expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Separately, the administration said its $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases lowered the cost of a new mortgage by $5,000.

Inflation And Fed Policy Keep Rates High

The macro backdrop offers little relief. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development projected this week that U.S. headline inflation will rise to 4.2% in 2026, up sharply from 2.6% in 2025, driven largely by the energy shock. The Federal Reserve, which held rates steady at its most recent meeting, is projected to keep policy unchanged through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

Analysts See Market Normalization

Housing analysts had cautioned as recently as this month that a market crash remained unlikely. Michael Ryan, founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, described conditions as a “normalization cycle” rather than a systemic break. Zillow Group Inc. ( ZG ) projected home values rising about 0.7% year over year by the end of 2026.

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