Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have a lot of support on ground, but the weather gods do not seem to be favouring. As the government prepares to put its first budget after assuming office with phenomenal majority, the delayed monsoon, and also deficient until now, is becoming a concern.

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Forty-three percent deficiency in monsoon rainfall until time has brought despair to the already parched Indian states. In May, the government had issued a drought advisory to Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradhesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Karnataka after the water levels in the dams dropped to critical levels.

The monsoon as per IMD is expected to arrive in Mumbai by June 21 and cover entire Maharashtra by June 24-25, a delay of around 15 days. The monsoon is likely to cover 90 percent of the country by July 4. As much as 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall is recorded during southwest monsoon between June and September.

IMD has predicted a near normal monsoon at 96 percent of LPA while Skymet puts monsoon at 93 percent, which is below normal. Not just India but the El Nino is expected to create delays in monsoon for US Southwest. El Nino is characterised by warmer than normal sea surface temperature in tropical pacific, that affects weather globally by shifting wind patterns in the atmosphere.

The Indian monsoon also has been impacted by Cyclone Vayu, leading to second longest heat wave spell in many parts of the country, taking the temperature soaring in parts of north and Central India.

The water availability has been on downward spiral and a growing concern. The rain in 2018 were below normal with long dry spells between rain days. The pre-monsoon showers in 2019 have been 23 percent below normal. The Central Water Commission report shows the water availability at just 18 percent of total capacity, with southern and western states slipping below 10 year average on the water table chart.

The low soil moisture due to weak monsoon has led to not just the heat waves but also to delay in Kharif crop sowing. Lower availability of underground water in key growing areas of Punjab and Haryana weighs on Kharif sowing. The crop sowing is down 9 percent at 8.2 million hectares as per latest farm ministry data. Kharif crops are mostly grown in the non-irrigated regions and their dependence on monsoon is high. More than 50 percent of India’s cultivable land is rain dependent

The Jal Shakti Mantralay, the water resources ministry, has promised potable piped drinking water to the every home in India by 2024. The ministry also, under NDA2.0, has taken over the target to link rivers and improve irrigation to farmers. Another much-needed reform and wait for policies and implementation. But what also needs to be done is use water judiciously. Crops that consume more water like sugarcane should be moved away from water-stressed regions. This would mean a lot of hand-holding and knowledge imparted to the farmers apart from subsidies and income help from the government. In the meanwhile, it’s still eyes on the sky.

First Published:Jun 18, 2019 6:09 PM IST