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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected; Oxford Economics Sees Only One Rate Cut in 2025
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Weekly Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected; Oxford Economics Sees Only One Rate Cut in 2025
Feb 13, 2025 11:36 AM

02:22 PM EST, 02/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Weekly applications for unemployment insurance dropped more than projected, according to US government data, while Oxford Economics predicted that the Federal Reserve would only cut interest rates once in 2025 toward the end of the year.

The seasonally adjusted number of initial claims fell by 7,000 to 213,000 in the week ended Feb. 8, the Department of Labor reported Thursday. The consensus was for a 216,000 level in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The previous week's reading was revised up by 1,000 to 220,000.

"The latest jobless claims data are consistent with a labor market characterized by low layoffs and a subdued pace of hiring," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in remarks emailed to MT Newswires.

The four-week moving average came in at 216,000, down 1,000 from the prior average that was revised up by 250. Weekly unadjusted claims fell by 10,095 to 231,006.

Seasonally adjusted continuing claims totaled 1.85 million for the week ended Feb. 1, below the Bloomberg consensus of 1.88 million. Continuing claims declined by 36,000 from the previous week's unrevised level. The four-week moving average came in at 1.87 million, dipping by 750 from the prior week's unrevised average, according to the DOL.

"Despite the low hiring rate, the Fed thinks the labor market is healthy enough to withstand a slower pace of rate cuts as inflation remains sticky," Vanden Houten said. "We now think the Fed will keep rates on hold for most of 2025 and look for only one rate cut this year, to come in December."

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting late in January following 100 basis points of cuts in the second half of 2024.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 143,000 nonfarm jobs in January, a marked slowdown from the month prior and below the 175,000 Bloomberg-compiled consensus. The unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4%.

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