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Weekly Jobless Claims Top Street Estimates, Government Data Show
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Weekly Jobless Claims Top Street Estimates, Government Data Show
Jul 18, 2024 9:50 AM

12:17 PM EDT, 07/18/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US increased more than market expectations, while continuing claims reached their highest level since late November 2021, government data showed Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted number of initial claims advanced by 20,000 to 243,000 in the week ended July 13, according to the US Department of Labor. The consensus was for a 229,000 level in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The previous week's reading was revised up by 1,000 to 223,000.

The print ties June 8 for the highest level since Aug. 12, 2023, Jefferies Economist Thomas Simons said in a note. "Claims were partly boosted by the fallout from Hurricane Beryl, which left over 1 million electric customers in blackout for the better part of a week."

The four-week moving average came in at 234,750, rising 1,000 from the prior week's average, which was revised up by 250. Unadjusted claims jumped by 36,824 on a weekly basis to 279,032.

For the week ended July 6, seasonally adjusted continuing claims totaled 1.87 million, its highest point since Nov. 27, 2021, and ahead of the Bloomberg consensus of about 1.86 million. Continuing claims climbed by 20,000 from the previous week's level that was revised down by 5,000. The four-week moving average was about 1.85 million, its highest level since Dec. 4, 2021, gaining 11,500 from the previous week's downwardly revised average, according to the DOL.

Michigan saw the highest increase in initial claims for the week ended July 6 at 10,578, followed by New York with 5,247 and Indiana with 2,835. The largest drop was in California, where claims slid by 5,672, followed by New Jersey with 5,517 and Georgia with 1,900.

"The data of the past few weeks have been signaling incremental labor market weakness, albeit from a position of extreme strength," according to Simons. "It is still too early to tell if this is another step in the process of the labor market coming into better balance, or if it is the early stages of building momentum to the downside."

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday that labor supply and demand are "apparently in balance" as inflation eases, which could encourage the central bank to lower its benchmark lending rate soon. The labor market is in "a sweet spot," with employment growing and nominal wage gains near the rate consistent with price stability, Waller said.

"As of today, I see there is more upside risk to unemployment than we have seen for a long time," Waller said Wednesday.

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