The S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday, slipping to 7,135.95 as investors balanced a pivotal day of megacap tech earnings against an escalating geopolitical standoff and the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is slightly bearish heading into Thursday’s open. The April 30 market shows a 47% chance of an “Up” open. Early trading volume for the Thursday bet currently sits at $26,434.

Why That Number Matters

Energy markets are in overdrive after President Donald Trump doubled down on a U.S. naval blockade against Iran. Trump said that the blockade will remain in place until Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal, asserting that the Iranian economy is “choking like a stuffed pig.”

The U.S. Central Command’s blockade has successfully stranded roughly 69 million barrels of Iranian oil, depriving the nation of billions in potential revenue. However, the restriction in global supply, at last check, has prompted Brent Crude futures to surge 2.55% to $113.26 per barrel, and WTI reached 2.15% higher to $109.18 per barrel.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf openly mocked the U.S. strategy, claiming it has only succeeded in driving crude prices higher and warning that the next stop is $140. Factoring in the prolonged disruption, Goldman Sachs also raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90.

Beyond the geopolitical theater, the market is digesting Wednesday’s after-hours earnings from tech giants like Alphabet Inc. ( GOOG ) , Amazon.com Inc. ( AMZN ) , Meta Platforms Inc. ( META ) , and Microsoft Corp. ( MSFT ) , alongside the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate decision under Chair Jerome Powell.

The Bull Case

Amid the overarching fear of an energy shock, during the publication of this piece, Dow futures slipped by 0.59%, S&P 500 slid 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.20%.

Traders that are still betting “Up” are likely anticipating that strong AI-driven results from the Magnificent 7 will overpower the macroeconomic drag of $120 oil.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,131.61, a step down from Tuesday’s close of 7,138.80. As a result, the April 29 Polymarket bet resolved “Down,” despite the “Up” odds an hour before the market opened. The market settled on a massive $200,511 in traded volume on Wednesday.