A deep depression formed in the Arabian Sea intensified into cyclonic storm Biparjoy (pronounced as Biporjoy) on Tuesday evening. On June 7 at around 2.30 am, Cyclone Biparjoy was positioned 900 km west-southwest of Goa, 1020 km southwest of Mumbai, 1090 km south-southwest of Porbandar and 1380 km south of Karachi.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said the cyclone is "likely to move nearly northwards and intensify gradually into a severe cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea by Wednesday morning and further intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region during subsequent 24 hours."

Now, the key question is will Cyclone Biparjoy impact the onset of monsoon or not? The IMD and private weather forecasting agencies have different opinions.

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Skymet President GP Sharma told CNBC-TV18 that the position of the cyclone is the key element in affecting the monsoon.

"If a cyclone is positioned along our southwestern and western coastal line, it impacts the onset of monsoon in a positive manner. We saw this happening in 2020 when Nisarg hit our western coastal line and made landfall in Maharashtra. It brought the onset of monsoon with it," Sharma said.

However, this is not the case with Cyclone Biparjoy, which is positioned in the Arabian Sea far from the coastal line.

"Biparjoy is more of a spoilsport as it has already started interfering with the onset of monsoon. Biparjoy is positioned in the Arabian Sea, far from our coastal line. Such cyclone suppresses monsoon," Sharma said. "It weakens the current and delays the favourable conditions for monsoon. So Biparjoy is delaying the onset of monsoon."

Sharma reiterated that Skymet has already said that the onset of monsoon is likely to happen by June 10. "Now, we have updated our forecast and we are expecting it to happen on June 9," he updated.

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He further added that Biparjoy is not the only factor playing spoilsport here. This year's monsoon has two elements affecting it negatively: Cyclone Biparjoy and El Niño. Earlier it was expected that El Niño would impact rainfall and its intensity in August. However, the situation has changed.

"El Niño's impact has started and it's evolving. For El Niño to make an impact, the ocean and atmosphere should be in sync. Earlier the ocean was warming, making the condition favourable for El Niño but the atmosphere was reluctant. Now, the atmosphere has also started aligning, resulting in faster-than-expected development in El Niño impact. El Niño is evolving faster and earlier than expected. And this is going to impact the monsoon across the nation," Sharma told CNBC-TV18.

But the government agency IMD has a different view. Mumbai head Sunil Kamble told CNBC-TV18 that the forecasted onset of the monsoon was June 4 but there is a window of plus or minus four days.

"In Kerala, we are expecting the onset of monsoon to happen in the next 1-2 days. So we can't say that there is a delay in the onset of monsoon due to the cyclone as of now," Kamble said.

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He added that the IMD is monitoring the situation and the cyclone is "quite far from our coastal line" and is moving in the Northwest direction.

"And as far as EL Niño is concerned, its impact will be there in July-August only," Kamble told CNBC-TV18.

He further added, "For the entire country, our forecast of a normal monsoon remains as it is. Maharashtra, on the other hand, will witness a weaker monsoon in June. The temperature in the state will be one or two degrees above normal and there will be a 20 percent deficit in the rainfall."

Private weather forecasting agencies, on the other hand, claim that the conditions for the onset of monsoon are still not visible. Skymet's GP Sharma also told CNBC-TV18 that today's observations will further clarify what's to come.

"The onset of monsoon happens when 60 percent of stations in the south west coastal region report 2.5 mm rainfall for two consecutive days. So, out of 14 stations in the region, at least 9 should witness this rainfall which hasn't happened till now. Only 5-6 stations have received some rainfall," Sharma explained.

The combination of Cyclone Biporjoy and El Niño is going to have a negative impact on the monsoon this year, private weather agencies claim. It will further aggravate existing agriculture concerns as sowing depends on rainfall. The uncertainty over rainfall and chances of a delayed, weak monsoon are likely to negatively impact this year's sowing season.

(Edited by : Ayushi Agarwal)

First Published:Jun 7, 2023 10:23 AM IST