The southwest monsoon will make a delayed arrival in Kerala with an expected onset date of June 4, per the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Additionally, heatwave conditions are likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh over the next two days, the IMD warned on Tuesday. Over the next five days, Northeastern states are also likely to experience heavy rainfall, they added.

Forecast on the onset of monsoon in Kerala

This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed than the normal date of onset, the IMD said.

The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on Sunday, June 4, with a model error of ± 4 days.

In 2022, the forecasted onset date was May 27 and the actual onset date was May 29.

Forecast on heatwave warnings and maximum temperatures

Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are expected in isolated pockets over coastal Andhra Pradesh on May 16 and heatwave conditions are expected on May 17.

However, heatwave conditions in the first half of May were less severe due to the Western disturbances that affected parts of northwest India, an IMD official told ANI on Tuesday afternoon.

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As the next western disturbance is approaching northwest India for the next seven days, we are not expecting heatwave conditions there, he added. However, the temperature will be higher around 40 degrees Celsius.

In parts of northwest and Central India, maximum temperatures are very likely to rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius from May 18. There will be no significant change over the other parts of the nation.

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Due to humid air and high temperatures, hot and discomforting weather is very likely over Odisha, coastal West Bengal, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Tamil Nadu from May 16-18. Similar conditions will be felt over Konkan from May 18-20.

Rainfall forecast over India during the next 5 days

In Northeast India, light to moderate widespread rainfall is very likely during the next five days, the IMD said.

Heavy rainfall is likely expected at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh on May 16 and May 19-20, and over Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from May 16-20. Isolated very heavy falls are likely over Assam and Meghalaya on May 16 and May 18-19.

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Meanwhile, a duststorm and dust-raising winds are likely to be experienced in Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha from May 16-18.

First Published:May 16, 2023 3:28 PM IST