A SkyMet official indicated a higher likelihood of the El-Nino effect occurring this year, potentially impacting rainfall patterns. According GP Sharma, the president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet, and India Meteorological Department (IMD) DS Pai, the El-Nino weather pattern is typically observed in August end and September, and its presence raises concerns about below-normal rainfall.

GP Sharma, the president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet, expressed his views on the matter, stating that El-Nino predominantly affects regions in the country that heavily rely on rainfall.

In a similar vein, DS Pai highlighted that in 65 percent of previous cases with El-Nino, rainfall has been below average. Pai further said that June may witness below-normal rainfall, while Sharma emphasised that Skymet's forecast indicates a 94 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall.

El-Nino refers to the warming of the ocean surface, resulting in above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming effect triggers changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. Consequently, the Indian monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El-Nino years.

Historically, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El-Nino years, sometimes resulting in severe drought conditions that devastate crops and necessitate restrictions on food grain exports. The potential impact of the El-Nino effect on India's agricultural sector and water resources raises concerns for the country's overall well-being.

(CREDIT: Reuters)

The IMD predicted a normal monsoon this year. It estimated 83.5 cm rainfall in this monsoon — expects it to be in the normal category. "The southwest monsoon is likely to be normal over India from June to September," the weather department said. It added that the monsoon season is expected produce 96 percent of rainfall, "with error margin of 4 percent".

GP Sharma said, "...Things are looking a little worse to me. Monsoon should behave well so it will be good for the country, but then looking at the conditions which are there, it doesn't seem to be so." He added, "We have given 94 percent; plus-minus 5 percent. We have gone up to even 90 percent; for 60 percent of chance, we have given in the forecast for below normal and drought."

He added that El-Nino is a more powerful factor which brings in the fluctuations in climate over many parts of the world, droughts in Australia and perishing rains over Indian subcontinent and possibly heavy rains in southern parts of America.

"All that a part of El Nino. You said El-Nino alert has been sounded. Obviously when some index parameters in the ocean, it crosses a threshold value, the alert is sounded. It is a very normal process. The El-Nino is ramping up now," he said.

First Published:Jun 12, 2023 12:17 PM IST