11:45 AM EDT, 08/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target price of $45, cut $2, reflects a 6.5x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2026 EBITDA, in line with AR's historical forward average. We cut our 2025 EPS estimate by $0.77 to $2.60 and 2026's by $0.08 to $3.94. The EIA is projecting Henry Hub natural gas prices to average $3.70/MMBtu in 2025, rising to $4.40/MMBtu in 2026. While we are not quite as sanguine on the 2026 forecast (and our 2026 EPS estimate is slightly below current consensus), we do think a high-$3/MMBtu range is reasonable. Thus, we still see solid earnings power in 2026. At this point, AR management has elected to hedge only about 20% of planned 2026 production, yielding a high degree of upside potential to spot price movement. AR should also benefit from exposure to propane exports, which were up 6% Y/Y. In our view, there is some risk of tariff changes inducing more hesitancy by end-market buyers, but we note May volumes (latest available) were down 6.2% as well.