09:20 AM EDT, 05/29/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

Our 12-month target price remains at $125, a 5.7x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2025 EBITDA, slightly above COP's historical forward average. COP has agreed to acquire Marathon Oil (MRO 26 ***) in an all-stock deal valued at $22.6B including assumed debt, and a 15% premium to MRO's pre-announcement price. The deal, expected to close in Q4, would boost COP's production by 31% (based on Q1 2024 levels) and proved reserves by 20% (based on YE 2023 estimates). MRO's production is largely centered around the Bakken Shale and Eagle Ford Shale, and would thus diversify COP's Lower 48 exposure. We estimate COP's Permian Basin operations, post-merger, would drop to 57% of its Lower 48 production from the prior 70%, which would reduce exposure to possible midstream capacity headwinds in the Permian Basin. COP sees the deal as immediately accretive and guided to buybacks of $20B over the next three years (post-close), which we estimate would more than offset new shares to be issued in this deal.