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Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion To Hold From Buy On Shares Of Avalonbay Communities Inc.
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Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion To Hold From Buy On Shares Of Avalonbay Communities Inc.
Mar 11, 2026 3:09 AM

02:25 PM EST, 02/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We lower our target price by $17 to $180, applying a narrower risk premium and a forward P/FFO of 15.8x on core FFO estimate, still a premium to the multi-family REIT average of 15.5x. We lower our 2026 FFO estimate by $0.40 to $11.40 and start 2027's at $11.75, as guidance has come down significantly, on projected revenue of $3.09 billion and $3.26 billion, respectively. The trust is guiding for 2026 FFO of $11.00-$11.50 per share, on same-store residential revenue change of +0.4% to 2.4%, residential operating expense change of +2.7% to +4.9%. This equates to a disappointing cash NOI of -0.7% to +1.3%, well below our prior forecasts. AVB is expecting key markets in the northeast to see weakness in job employment growth. In 2026, management sees 3,025 development homes delivered and a slightly higher level at 3,175 units occupied. Capital used for investment activities is targeted at $1.5B, also supported by $600M unsecured credit facility. The shares are currently trading at a dividend yield of 4.0%.

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