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Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Alcoa Corporation
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Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Alcoa Corporation
Oct 24, 2025 7:09 AM

09:50 AM EDT, 10/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We increase our 12-month target by $11 to $43, on an EV/EBITDA of 6.0x our 2026 EBITDA estimate, a discount to AA's three-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 6.9x, justified by the Section 232 tariffs, a headwind for AA's cost basis. We trim our 2025 EPS estimate by $0.05 to $3.40 but raise our 2026 EPS forecast by $1.26 to $4.10. AA posted year-to-date production records at five aluminum smelters across Canada, Norway, Australia, and the U.S. Revenue of $3.0 billion was relatively stable (down 1% Q/Q), while adjusted EBITDA of $270 million fell from Q2's $313 million. The company's strong $1.5 billion cash position and progress toward debt targets provide financial flexibility as aluminum markets stabilize. While Section 232 tariffs continue to pressure margins, the recent increase in Midwest premiums to import parity levels now covers the full cost of logistics, including the 50% tariff on Canadian aluminum. This development provides better margin protection for AA's integrated North American operations.

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