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Research Alert: CFRA Reiterates Sell Opinion On Shares Of Packaging Corporation Of America
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Research Alert: CFRA Reiterates Sell Opinion On Shares Of Packaging Corporation Of America
Jul 1, 2025 11:53 AM

02:40 PM EDT, 07/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We raise our 12-month target by $24 to $180, on an EV/EBITDA of 8.5x our 2026 EBITDA estimate, a discount to PKG's five-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 9.8x. PKG announced a $1.8B acquisition of Greif's containerboard business, adding two mills (~800,000 tons capacity) and eight corrugated plants with expected closure by the end of Q3 2025. The deal brings in ~$1.2B in annual sales and $212M in EBITDA, targeting $60M in annual synergies for an effective 6.6x EBITDA multiple after synergies. We increase our 2025 adjusted EPS estimate by $0.24 to $10.59 and raise 2026's by $1.12 to $12.62, reflecting the additional earnings contribution. This strategic timing capitalizes on industry-wide capacity rationalization, as competitors announce nearly 6% capacity cuts while PKG adds quality assets at trough valuations. Post-acquisition leverage is expected to be a manageable 1.7x. Despite the acquisition's strategic merit, we maintain our Sell rating given macroeconomic headwinds and execution risk on the $60M synergy target.

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