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Research Alert: CFRA Retains Buy Opinion On Shares Of Zto Express (cayman) Inc.
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Research Alert: CFRA Retains Buy Opinion On Shares Of Zto Express (cayman) Inc.
Apr 7, 2025 2:00 AM

04:30 AM EDT, 04/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We maintain our Buy opinion with a 12-month target price of USD25 (from USD23) valuing the stock at 13.8x 2025 P/E, a 34% discount to its five-year average P/E (21.0x). The discount is justified by ZTO's earnings downside risks due to the worsening global trade outlook, and partly offset by our projected ROE of about 15% in 2025-26 vs. five-year average of 12.5%. ZTO Express ( ZTO ) is guiding for 20%-24% parcel volume growth in 2025-26 vs. industry's 15% outlook, underpinned by higher-value retail parcels (Q4 2024: +50% Y/Y) in our view. We project operating margins of 25.5% in 2025, supported by the implementation of autonomous delivery vehicles (targeting cost of CNY0.07-0.08 per package vs. CNY0.15 for fossil fuel vehicles). We think this is in line with ZTO's plan to focus capex on facility upgrades and automation, rather than capacity expansion. We adjust our EPS estimate for 2025 to CNY12.97 (from CNY12.37) and initiate 2026 EPS at CNY13.93.

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