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Research Alert: CFRA Retains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Zto Express (cayman) Inc.
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Research Alert: CFRA Retains Hold Opinion On Shares Of Zto Express (cayman) Inc.
Aug 25, 2025 10:23 PM

01:00 AM EDT, 08/26/2025 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We adjust our target price to USD19 (from USD18), valuing ZTO at a 12.9x 2025 P/E, a 27% discount to its peer average P/E (17.6x). The discount reflects intensifying competition in China's express delivery market and ZTO's first market share decline since 2011 (19.4% in 2024 vs. 22.9% in 2023). ZTO guides for 14%-18% parcel volume growth in 2025 (from 20%-24% prior guidance), supported by retail parcels and reverse logistics. We project operating margins to decline to 22.0% in 2025 (26.6% in 2024), pressured by an expected 8% Y/Y decrease in fees per parcel amid heightened competition. This should be partially offset by cost efficiency improvements, as demonstrated by H1's 15.4% decrease in unit transportation costs and further expectations of route optimization/automation. Our EPS estimates for 2025/2026 are CNY10.51/CNY12.59 (from CNY11.67/CNY12.62), respectively, as margin pressures offset volume gains. Maintain Hold.

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