financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
Don't Bet on the Dollar in a Protracted Delay to the Election
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Don't Bet on the Dollar in a Protracted Delay to the Election
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

GBP/USD spot rate at time of publication: 1.2962Bank transfer rate (indicative guide): 1.2570-1.2660FX specialist providers (indicative guide): 1.2730-1.2800More information on FX specialist rates hereThe Dollar has risen sharply on Wednesday to recover the ground it lost on Tuesday as it became clear that President Donald Trump had performed markedly better than pre-election polls and modelling suggested he would, which has increased the prospects for a contested outcome to the vote.

The net result of the increase in the uncertainty posed by a delay to the results is a rise in the value of 'safe haven' currencies, such as the Yen, Franc and U.S. Dollar.

The Dollar's relationship with risk therefore lends itself to a view that further gains are possible in the event the result is delayed for a number of days, or even weeks.

However, this assumption might not stand according to some leading foreign exchange analysts we follow and the Dollar could ultimately start to underperform.

"The USD is benefiting for now, but a long delay should boost alternative safe havens like the yen and CHF, which may benefit from diversification," says Marvin Barth, a foreign exchange analyst at Barclays.

The outcome of the election now hangs on results from a few key states: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Millions of votes remain uncounted and some political commentators say the final result might only be known on Friday. This however assumes there are no legal challenges launched by Trump's team.

"If we end up in a situation where the result is contested, we expect the JPY and gold would be the main outperformers, as the USD might succumb to shifting sentiment were the uncertainty to last into December, for example," says Daragh Maher, Head of Research, Americas, at HSBC in New York. "This pattern of initial USD strength and subsequent weakness was evident in November 2000, when the election result was disputed."

"However, it is difficult to be certain how much of the USD’s movement in late 2000 was a function of US political risk, or the evolving reaction function to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. For now, however, we are not at that point. Instead, markets are waiting to see how this election evolves, and so USD ambiguity is likely to persist," adds Maher.

Financial and foreign exchange market volatility has risen considerably over the course of the past 24 hours and could remain elevated for many hours yet after U.S. President Donald prematurely called himself the winner of the presidential election and signalled the potential for the election to enter a protracted legal battle.

The 'safe haven' U.S. Dollar was bought heavily in mid-week trade after Trump told supporters, "we will win this, as far as I am concerned we already have"; he added he plans to go to the U.S. Supreme Court and wants all the voting to stop. "Frankly, we did win this election," he said.

The rally in the Dollar follows on from a slump seen on Tuesday, when markets positioned for a potential 'blue wave' outcome.

"The US has a strong constitutional process and institutions and is likely to remain the favoured safe haven despite being the epicentre of new uncertainty. But, the longer a delay carries on, the more alternative safe havens likely will benefit from diversification. Anticipation of that likely benefits the JPY and CHF now," says Barth.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange analysts at Deutsche Bank have told clients they no longer see adequate risk-reward in pursuing a strategy of selling Dollars.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
The GBPUSD declines sharply alongside a bullish correctional trend line -Analysis-25-07-2025
The GBPUSD declines sharply alongside a bullish correctional trend line -Analysis-25-07-2025
Jul 25, 2025
The (GBPUSD) price declined sharply in its last intraday trading, amid the continuous attempts to look for a rising low to take as a base that might assist it to gain the required positive momentum to recover, amid the dominance of a bullish correctional wave on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a supportive bias line for this trend,...
Sterling wallows at two-month low before UK jobs data
Sterling wallows at two-month low before UK jobs data
Jul 16, 2025
The British pound declined with the opening of the European market on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, resuming its losses after a brief pause against the US dollar and nearing a two-month low, amid concerns that UK labor market data may reinforce signs of an economic recession. The unexpected rise in core inflation levels in the UK for...
Sterling gives up two-week high before Bailey's testimony
Sterling gives up two-week high before Bailey's testimony
Jul 21, 2025
The British pound declined at the opening of the European market on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, giving up a two-week high against the US dollar due to active profit-taking and investor caution ahead of the Bank of England Governor's testimony. Andrew Bailey is scheduled to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Committee in London,...
The GBPUSD attempts to offload its oversold conditions -Analysis-28-07-2025
The GBPUSD attempts to offload its oversold conditions -Analysis-28-07-2025
Jul 27, 2025
The (GBPUSD) price witnessed fluctuated moves in its last intraday trading, to settle after a strong bearish wave that used it to break a bullish correctional trend on the short-term basis, surpassing its EMA50, facing intensive negative pressure on the price, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels,...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved