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Euro plumbs two-month low amid negative pressures
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Euro plumbs two-month low amid negative pressures
Nov 3, 2024 12:06 PM

The euro fell in European trade on Wednesday against a basket of major rivals, resuming losses after a two-day hiatus against the dollar, and plumbing two-month lows amid mounting pressures, as the ECB is likely to cut interest rates next week.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November, and theres even a chance it might not cut interest rates at all that month.

Now investors await the Feds last meeting minutes later today, which could provide clues on the likely path ahead for monetary policies.

The Price

The EUR/USD pair fell 0.3% today to $1.0950, the lowest since August 15, with a session-high at $1.0981.

The pair closed up 0.1% on Tuesday, marking the second profit in a row as risk appetite improved in the markets.

European Rates

Eurozone inflation slowed down to 3-⅕ year lows in September, as inflationary pressures on ECB policymakers recede.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that recent developments bolster confidence that inflation will return to targets in time, which would reflect on the October 17 policy decision.

Right now, the odds of a 0.25% ECB interest rate cut in October rose from 80% to 95%.

US Rates

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Federal Reserve interest rate cut in November stood at 87%, with a 13% chance of no changes in policies.

Rate Gap

The current eurozone-US interest rate gap stands at 135 basis points, and could expand to 160 basis points in favor of the US in October, in turn pressuring the common currency.

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