financetom
Canadian Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Canadian Dollar
/
Pound / Canadian Dollar Rate Breaks Below Key 1.75 Lows, Threatens More Downside
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Pound / Canadian Dollar Rate Breaks Below Key 1.75 Lows, Threatens More Downside
Mar 22, 2024 2:16 AM

The GBP into CAD conversion witnessed a break below the key lows set in the 1.75s following Brexit, ensuring an ominous looking top has formed for the pair.

The new week starts with fresh declines being seen in the sterling complex.

The falls have however been moderated by the first official appearance of the UK's finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.

Osborne has said, "let me clear you should not underestimate our resolve. We were prepared for the unexpected and we are equipped for whatever happens."

Osborne is not willing to rush into any detail though, wanting to see how the situation unfolds over coming days and weeks before changing tax and spending settings.

"It seems that George Osborne’s appearance this morning, his first since before the referendum results were announced, has somewhat calmed investors’ fears, the Chancellor joining many of his Tory colleagues in claiming there is no rush to trigger the dreaded Article 50 despite increasing pressure from Europe," says Connor Campbell at Spreadex in london.

Pound Still Above Friday Lows vs Canadian Dollar

The British pound was trading at 1.7507 versus the Canadian dollar on the first day of trade to the new week.

The pair remains above the Brexit-inspired low of 1.7252 suggesting we could be seeing some tentative form of short-term consolidation.

There are now fears the UK is headed for recession, something that should keep GBP under pressure over coming months.

The Brexit result has it ushered in countless uncertainties - from what a new trade agreement with Europe would look like, to whether Scotland would be having another referendum on independence or not.

Uncertainty is the bane of businesses who like to reduce risks wherever possible and the period ahead may lead to a slow-down in investment in the UK, and indeed across the globe as investors wait for more certainty before committing their money.

As a result, risky assets and commodities fared worse in trading on Friday in the aftermath of the referendum than safe-haven currencies and assets.

The Canadian dollar was itself hit, falling to 1.31 to the US dollar, which gained over 2.5% against a basket of currencies as investors made it one of their safe-havens of choice.

The currency also had to bear the brunt of declines in commodities, including a 4.5% decline in oil, which is highly correlated to the CAD since it is the country's chief export.

From a technical perspective the break below the 1.7540, 2012 monthly lows, no matter how temporarily, has strengthened the bearish case.

Despite looking overstretched to the downside, risks remain biased to yet more bearish price action, with a move below the 1.7255 lows confirming an extension down to 1.7000.

Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne sees potential for downside as increasing now the exchange rate has breached the 1.81 handle:

“Weakness below 1.81 would, however, suggest deeper, longer-term downside risks towards 1.65/1.75. We can concede that the bear case for the GBP has weakened recently but the bull case is far from proven at this point.”

Upside is likely to be capped between 1.75-1.78 were the 2012 lows are situated and the S2 monthly pivot at 1.7824, which is likely to act as an obstacle to more upside given they tend to attract substantial amounts of counter-trend trading.

An ominous looking head and shoulders-type top on the monthly chart also augurs ill for the pair, with declines possible to the key 1.50 lows now not unthinkable.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Canadian dollar to pound sterling: GBP/CAD recovers as Canada steals the limelight for poor data releases this Friday
Canadian dollar to pound sterling: GBP/CAD recovers as Canada steals the limelight for poor data releases this Friday
Mar 22, 2024
By Gary Howes It looked as though the Canadian dollar was due a relief rally against the British pound on Friday morning after a poor UK data release. However, Canada then outshone the UK after releasing a surprisingly bad employment figure.In early afternoon trade we see the pound sterling to...
Canadian dollar (CAD) vs Pound Sterling (GBP): 1.80 Now Forecasted
Canadian dollar (CAD) vs Pound Sterling (GBP): 1.80 Now Forecasted
Mar 22, 2024
The pound sterling continues to advance against the Canadian dollar with the exchange rate now at levels last seen back in 2009.The pound sterling to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) continues to head higher; at 14:44 in London we see the rate 0.42 pct higher at 1.7879. (Note: Our GBP/CAD...
Canadian Dollar Forecasts Lowered at UBS, Pound Sterling Back in the Groove
Canadian Dollar Forecasts Lowered at UBS, Pound Sterling Back in the Groove
Mar 22, 2024
By Will Peters The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is under fresh pressure on Tuesday morning with a slew of forecasters predicting the currency is to suffer yet further losses.A look at the currency market place in early afternoon London time shows: The pound sterling to Canadian dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate is...
Canadian dollar to sink further, Pound Sterling unable to extend gains in GBP/CAD
Canadian dollar to sink further, Pound Sterling unable to extend gains in GBP/CAD
Mar 22, 2024
The CAD suffered both from weak Canadian economic data delivered on Friday; today we hear that the outlook remains challenging.In early afternoon in London we see the Canadian dollar remains under pressure against the majority of currencies, but GBP/CAD is struggling somewhat: The pound sterling to Canadian dollar exchange rate...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved