financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
Pound / Dollar Higher Amidst Investor Relief, But Strategists Look for Further Losses
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Pound / Dollar Higher Amidst Investor Relief, But Strategists Look for Further Losses
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

Surging stock markets signify a sharp reversal in risk sentiment for the better, helping the Euro and Pound rally against the U.S. Dollar.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate recovered back above 1.3130 in the midweek session, having been as low as 1.3081 at the start of the week, allowing Sterling to correct back from what were oversold levels.

The war in Ukraine remains the overarching fundamental driver of global foreign exchange and Sterling has ceded significant value to the Dollar since the war began.

Newswires report on Wednesday Russia's foreign ministry said it would be better if Russia's goals in Ukraine are achieved through talks.

This adds to reports out earlier this week that were Ukraine to agree to Russia's conditions they would cease fighting immediately.

Amongst some of Russia's demands are that Ukraine recognises the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk while recognising Russia's sovereignty over the Crimea. They also want Ukraine to commit to not joining NATO and other political blocs (i.e. the EU).

"Ukraine president Zelensky no longer insists on NATO membership and said he is open to ‘compromise' on the status of Luhansk and Donetsk," says Kenneth Broux, a strategist with Société Générale.

News of a ceasefire around Kyiv which is set to last through Wednesday might also be a contributing factor to better market sentiment

The market also appears to be leaning heavily on Thursday's meeting of Russia's Sergey Lavrov with Ukrainian negotiators in Turkey as a source of hope that the situation in Ukraine can deescalate.

Ahead of the meeting the AFP newswire reports that Russia says "some progress being made in talks with Ukraine".

Improved sentiment has lead to some selling of the Dollar, which remains a beneficiary during times when investors are fearful.

The rebound being witnessed in Pound-Dollar could also be, at least in part, due to technical recalibrations.

The below chart shows recent price action in the Pound-Dollar rate, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the lower pane:

Above: Daily GBP/USD chart with RSI in lower panel.

GBP/USD reference rates at publication:

Spot: 1.3152High street bank rates (indicative band): 1.2792-1.2884Payment specialist rates (indicative band): 1.3034-1.3086Find out about specialist rates and service, hereSet up an exchange rate alert, hereThe RSI is a useful took in that it can signal when a move has become extended: when the RSI dips below 30 - as in the above daily chart - it tells traders an asset is oversold.

Strategists at JP Morgan's trading desk in London say they are looking to buy back into the Dollar but would give Sterling some space to bounce higher in the immediate term.

They observe the Pound-Dollar exchange rate is now flagging as oversold, but buying a bounce is not a high conviction position.

"Given the scant liquidity in the markets right now we may get a chance to buy USD at better levels this week so we temper our enthusiasm for the time being," says the note.

"I would be interesting in fading would be towards 1.3260/70 and 1.3350/60," adds the trader note.

Terence Wu, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore says he is turning tactically bearish on Sterling-Dollar from here, targeting a move lower to 1.2901.

"GBP may be caught in the downward trail of the EUR, with the UK facing similar (albeit more diffused) challenges as continental Europe," says Wu.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Sterling loses trading above $1.3 after cold inflation data
Sterling loses trading above $1.3 after cold inflation data
Nov 3, 2024
Sterling tumbled in European trade on Wednesday to below $1.3 against the dollar for the first time in two months, following mainline UK inflation data, which were colder than expected. The data showed that inflationary pressures on the Bank of Englands policymakers are receding, which boosted the odds of a 0.25% UK interest rate cut in November. The Price The...
Sterling extends gains to 30-month high after strong data
Sterling extends gains to 30-month high after strong data
Nov 3, 2024
Sterling about to mark largest weekly profit in a month The odds of a November UK rate cut recede BOE seeks more evidence before rate cut Sterling rose in European trade on Friday against a basket of major rivals, extending gains for the third straight session against the dollar and hitting 30-month highs, and about to mark the largest weekly...
Sterling hovers around $1.3 ahead of Bailey's remarks
Sterling hovers around $1.3 ahead of Bailey's remarks
Nov 3, 2024
Sterling climbed in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, while recovering from two-month lows against the US dollar, thus hovering around the psychological barrier of $1.3. Now traders await Bank of England Governor Andrew Baileys speech later today, which could provide clues on the future of UK interest rate cuts this year. The Price The GBP/USD...
Sterling tries to recover under pressure from UK interest rates
Sterling tries to recover under pressure from UK interest rates
Nov 3, 2024
Sterling rose in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, while trying to recoup from four-week lows against the dollar, under pressure from prospects of UK interest rate cuts. The bearish remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey boosted the odds of a 0.25% interest rate cut in November, which would widen the rate gap with...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved