financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
Pound to Dollar Rate Rises on U.S. Inflation Fall
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Pound to Dollar Rate Rises on U.S. Inflation Fall
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

Stocks rose and the Dollar retreated after U.S. inflation fell at a faster rate than investors were anticipating in March.

Headline CPI inflation rose by 0.1% month-on-month in March, which was half the 0.2% gain the market was expecting. This also represents a substantive slowdown from February's 0.4% rally.

This pulled the year-on-year growth down to 5.0% in March, which was less than February's 6.0% and the consensus expectation of 5.2%.

The Dollar was lower across the board in the wake of the figures: The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) spiked half a per cent to 1.2464 in the 15-minute window following the release.

EUR/USD was up by a similar margin at 1.0977. "The U.S. dollar tumbled after a bigger than expected cooldown in American inflation backed the view that the Fed may only have one more quarter point rate hike on the table," says Joe Manimbo, Senior Currency Analyst at Convera.

Above: GBP/USD at 15-minute intervals. (Consider setting a free FX rate alert here to better time your payment requirements.)

Gains for EUR/USD and GBP/USD were perhaps tempered by the all-important core inflation data which offered no surprises and, on balance, keeps alive the prospect of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

Core rose 0.4% in the month of March, a touch lower than the 0.5% of February, but on target with consensus expectations.

The annual gain stood at 5.6%, again in line with expectations, but a touch higher than February's 5.5% reading.

Downward drivers of U.S. inflation include falling energy bills, used vehicles, restaurant bills and medical services.

Ryan Brandham, Head of Global Capital Markets for North America at Validus Risk Management says at the very least U.S. inflation is softening, even if not as quickly as the Fed would like.

"U.S. economic data has softened of late, which will please the Fed, and this latest release does nothing to dent that market theme," says Brandham.

The declines in inflation are in-line with Truflation's data, which shows the utilities, healthcare, education, and food and alcoholic beverages sectors all driving the rate downwards.

The Truflation index, which is compiled using millions of data points taken in real-time and quoted daily, already shows US inflation at 4.3% as of April 12.

"We expect next month's official US CPI number to fall in line with this level as the steady decline in house prices that has been reported by numerous independent data providers since July last year finally starts to feed through to BLS numbers," says Oliver Rust, head of product at Truflation.

Rust says now that the recent banking crisis appears to have passed the Fed might deliver another 25 basis point hike "to really make sure that inflation is dead".

"However, with a credit crunch already playing out, there may be enough drivers now to push inflation down without another hike," he adds.

Smaller banner

GBP/USD Forecasts Q2 2023

Period: Q2 2023 Onwards
Details: Consensus institutional forecast targets + max & min targets.
Contributors: Citi, Barclays, Morgan Stanley & more
Provider: Global Reach
Type: Free Download

Please Access Here
Economists at ABN AMRO Bank expect U.S. core inflation to remain high over the coming months, prompting another rate hike from the Fed.

Core goods inflation is expected by ABN AMRO to continue picking up as higher wholesale used car prices pass through, while services inflation is expected to remain high as employers pass on higher unit labour costs, amid continued resilient services demand.

"Our base case is that the Fed hikes one last time, by 25bp at the May FOMC meeting," says economist Bill Diviney at ABN AMRO Bank.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Sterling resumes losses on UK political tensions
Sterling resumes losses on UK political tensions
May 19, 2026
The British pound fell in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, resuming losses that paused temporarily yesterday during a recovery attempt from a six-week low against the US dollar, amid ongoing political tensions in the United Kingdom. Demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset also returned as investor sentiment remained fragile while markets continued...
Sterling hits one-month high against the US dollar
Sterling hits one-month high against the US dollar
Jul 10, 2026
Sterling climbed to its highest level in nearly a month against the US dollar on Friday and also reached a one-year high against the euro, as investors assessed how central banks are likely to respond to higher energy prices resulting from the conflict between the United States and Iran. The pound rose to $1.345, its highest level since June 15,...
How is political turmoil in Britain affecting inflation and Sterling?
How is political turmoil in Britain affecting inflation and Sterling?
May 12, 2026
Growing political pressure on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pushing up UK government borrowing costs, but political uncertainty is not the only factor driving British bond yields to the highest levels among major advanced economies. Yields on 10-year UK government bonds which determine the governments future borrowing costs rose on Tuesday to 5.13%, the highest level since 2008. Gordon...
BOE holds rates for third meeting in a row
BOE holds rates for third meeting in a row
Apr 30, 2026
The Bank of Englands interest rate decision was released today, Thursday, at the conclusion of its April 30 meeting. In line with market expectations, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at the 3.75% range, the lowest level since December 2022, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change. This statement is positive for the British pound. ...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved