financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
U.S. Dollar Outlook: Position for More U.S. Banking Risk says Swedbank
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
U.S. Dollar Outlook: Position for More U.S. Banking Risk says Swedbank
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

Investors are being told to position for further spasms in the U.S. regional banking space, a development that could lead to further declines in some equities, bonds and the Dollar.

"After Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank and now potentially PacWest Bank, Western Alliance Bank and First Horizon Bank all having been subject to financial meltdowns, the proverbial cat will be very difficult to put back into the bag," says Pär Magnusson, Fixed Income Strategist at Swedbank.

U.S. bank stocks and the USD fell sharply again on Thursday, dragged down by fears PacWest and Western Alliance would be the next two regional lenders to cease operations.

As some banks come under pressure other banks in the sector tighten their lending conditions in order to shore up their own capital. This means leas money flowing into the economy, ultimately leading to a slowdown.

The Federal Reserve therefore need not raise interest rates further and money markets now show 100 basis points of cuts are expected by year-end.

Expectations for rate cuts weigh on U.S. bond yields which in turn leads to losses by the Dollar.

Sterling has meanwhile emerged as a relative 'safe haven' amidst the banking crisis as the UK has avoided the issues seen in the U.S. and Europe (where Credit Suisse was rescued by UBS).

UK banks saw increased regulations and capital holding requirements following the 2008 financial crisis with authorities seeking to ensure another crisis would never again be repeated.

U.S. banks also saw stricter rules and regulations, but these were eased under the Trump administration when regulations were loosened to boost growth in the sector and the economy.

"It is hard not to see the irony of regional U.S. banks having successfully lobbied for less regulations during the Trump administration only to find that less regulations now is making them vulnerable to bank runs," says Magnusson.

A 2018 Trump law allowed regional banks to break free from annual Federal Reserve stress tests that forced them to maintain certain levels of capital and liquidity to ensure they could withstand bouts of elevated withdrawals.

Above: The Dollar index is under pressure.

Magnusson explains a number of issues that have put U.S. regional banks are now unable to meet customer deposit withdrawal requests:

The first - and this was particularly relevant to SVB which failed in March - was the heavy investment in long-term government debt.

The value of this long-term debt has fallen as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, meaning the likes of SVB saw their asset base shrink at a time when depositors were increasingly eager to withdraw their deposits.

Another issue relates to the exposure of regional banks to real estate lending, an obvious vulnerability when property values fall in response to higher mortgage costs.

Data shows the average exposure to commercial real estate loans among regional banks is 29%, whereas it's only 6% among large banks.

"The U.S. regional bank crisis is spreading. With every bank that succumbs to shrinking deposits and/or market distrust, the probability of more banks falling victim to similar fates grows. A vicious spiral may be about to take hold. A general risk-off reaction is becoming increasingly likely, and you should position for this risk," says Magnusson.

Given the Dollar has proven vulnerable to domestic banking issues, any deepening of the crisis could prompt further declines.

On the other hand, any sense that the crisis is over could spark a reversal higher in the Dollar, sending GBPUSD lower.

For now, though, this crisis continues to simmer, despite the best efforts of regulators.

Smaller banner

GBP/USD Forecasts Q2 2023

Period: Q2 2023 Onwards
Details: Consensus institutional forecast targets + max & min targets.
Contributors: Citi, Barclays, Morgan Stanley & more
Provider: Global Reach
Type: Free Download

Please Access Here

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
How is political turmoil in Britain affecting inflation and Sterling?
How is political turmoil in Britain affecting inflation and Sterling?
May 12, 2026
Growing political pressure on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pushing up UK government borrowing costs, but political uncertainty is not the only factor driving British bond yields to the highest levels among major advanced economies. Yields on 10-year UK government bonds which determine the governments future borrowing costs rose on Tuesday to 5.13%, the highest level since 2008. Gordon...
Sterling hits one-month high against the US dollar
Sterling hits one-month high against the US dollar
Jul 10, 2026
Sterling climbed to its highest level in nearly a month against the US dollar on Friday and also reached a one-year high against the euro, as investors assessed how central banks are likely to respond to higher energy prices resulting from the conflict between the United States and Iran. The pound rose to $1.345, its highest level since June 15,...
BOE holds rates for third meeting in a row
BOE holds rates for third meeting in a row
Apr 30, 2026
The Bank of Englands interest rate decision was released today, Thursday, at the conclusion of its April 30 meeting. In line with market expectations, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at the 3.75% range, the lowest level since December 2022, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change. This statement is positive for the British pound. ...
Sterling resumes losses on UK political tensions
Sterling resumes losses on UK political tensions
May 19, 2026
The British pound fell in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, resuming losses that paused temporarily yesterday during a recovery attempt from a six-week low against the US dollar, amid ongoing political tensions in the United Kingdom. Demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset also returned as investor sentiment remained fragile while markets continued...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved